876 
 WTNT44 KNHC 041448
 TCDAT4
 
 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
 1100 AM AST SUN SEP 04 2016
 
 Hermine continues to have the structure of a post-tropical cyclone,
 with practically all of the deep convection well removed to the
 north-northeast of the center.  An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft
 measured peak surface winds near 60 kt, and that value is used for
 the advisory intensity.  Since the cyclone is over warm
 waters and the vertical shear may decrease somewhat during the next
 couple of days, some partial transition back to a tropical cyclone
 is possible.  However, this is not explicitly indicated in the
 official forecast.  In any event, the intensity of the system
 should be at or near hurricane force over the next 48 hours or so.
 
 Based on center fixes from the aircraft, the initial motion is
 060/9 kt.  A mid-tropospheric short wave trough will approach
 Hermine within the next day or so, and the global models forecast
 this vorticity maximum to merge with Hermine.  This interaction
 is expected to cause the post-tropical cyclone to move
 northeastward, then northward, and then north-northwestward during
 the next 36 hours or so.  Since the center has already moved a
 little to the east of the previous track, the official forecast has
 been adjusted eastward.  Later in the forecast period, the system
 should move east-northeastward, and away from the northeastern
 United States.  The official track forecast is somewhat to the west
 of the latest multi-model consensus.
 
 The slow motion and large wind field associated with Hermine will
 result in a long duration of hazardous conditions along much of the
 mid-Atlantic coast extending into southern New England through the
 holiday weekend and into midweek.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  04/1500Z 37.2N  69.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
  12H  05/0000Z 37.6N  69.4W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  24H  05/1200Z 38.3N  69.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  36H  06/0000Z 38.7N  70.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  48H  06/1200Z 39.0N  70.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  72H  07/1200Z 40.0N  68.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  96H  08/1200Z 41.0N  66.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 120H  09/1200Z 42.0N  60.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 
 $$
 Forecaster Pasch