313 
 WTNT43 KNHC 261454
 TCDAT3
 TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 AM EDT SUN SEP 26 2004
 
 METEOSAT-8 VISIBLE AND 1.6 MICRON NEAR-INFRARED IMAGERY ALONG WITH
 GOES-12 VISIBLE IMAGERY GIVE A FAIRLY CONFIDENT POSITION LOCATION
 FOR LISA. THE SYSTEM IS STILL UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND A
 PORTION OF THE CENTER IS DISPLACED SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN
 CONVECTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND
 AFWA ARE SPLIT BETWEEN 55 KTS AND 45 KTS...SO FOR THIS ADVISORY THE
 OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS NUDGED TO 50 KTS.
 
 INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 345/7. LISA IS LOCATED ON THE
 SOUTHEAST SIDE OF A DEEP MID-LEVEL CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROUGH. OVER
 THE NEXT 72 HOURS...THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT OF THE
 CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND LEAVE LISA BEHIND. THE SYSTEM REMAINS TO THE
 WEST OF A MID-LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WHICH SLOWLY BUILDS
 TOWARD THE WEST AND LISA STAYS EAST OF OF A CUT-OFF LOW WHICH
 SHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM ON A CONTINUAL NORTHWEST TRACK. THE GUIDANCE
 SUITE ARE MOSTLY IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED NORTHWEST
 MOVEMENT OF LISA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST RIGHT OF THE
 MODEL CONSENSUS BUT THE TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED LEFT OF THE
 PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK...WITH THE GREATEST ADJUSTMENT IN THE
 EXTENDED TIME PERIODS.
 
 THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR LISA REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
 ONE. STRONG SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SYSTEM UP
 TO 72 HOURS WHICH SHOULD CAP ANY DEVELOPMENT. BEYOND 72 HOURS...THE
 SHEAR INDICATED BY SHIPS DOES DIMINISH AND SHOULD ALLOW LISA TO
 DEVELOP TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
 HOLDS LISA TO 50 KTS THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
 STRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE FORCE EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED TIME
 PERIOD. 
  
 FORECASTER SISKO/PASCH
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      26/1500Z 19.0N  46.1W    50 KT
  12HR VT     27/0000Z 20.3N  46.6W    50 KT
  24HR VT     27/1200Z 21.8N  47.3W    50 KT
  36HR VT     28/0000Z 23.1N  48.1W    50 KT
  48HR VT     28/1200Z 24.5N  49.2W    55 KT
  72HR VT     29/1200Z 26.5N  50.3W    65 KT
  96HR VT     30/1200Z 29.5N  51.5W    65 KT
 120HR VT     01/1200Z 32.5N  53.0W    65 KT
  
  
 $$