262 
 WTNT41 KNHC 042104
 TCDAT1
 
 HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015
 500 PM AST SUN OCT 04 2015
 
 The satellite cloud pattern of Joaquin, especially the inner-core
 convection, has continued to erode during the past several hours.
 The Bermuda radar also indicates a very ragged-looking banded eye
 pattern. The initial intensity has been decreased to 85 kt for this
 advisory based on some dropsonde data from a WB-57 research
 aircraft that is part of the NASA Tropical Cyclone Intensity
 Experiment.
 
 Joaquin is moving to the north-northeast at 015/12 kt. There is no
 significant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning.
 Joaquin is expected to move toward the north-northeast tonight and
 and turn toward the northeast on Monday as the cyclone moves around
 the western periphery of a ridge located to its east. By days 2-5,
 the hurricane should accelerate to the east-northeast as the cyclone
 moves into the strong mid-latitude westerlies. The new NHC track
 forecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory
 track, and lies down the middle of the tightly packed track model
 guidance envelope.
 
 Joaquin should continue to steadily weaken during the next 48 hours
 or so, followed by transition to an extratropical cyclone on
 days 3-5 as the cyclone moves over the cold waters of the far north
 Atlantic where the vertical shear is forecast to be 45-50 kt. The
 intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and the
 consensus model IVCN through 48 hours, and is based on guidance from
 the Ocean Prediction Center for days 3-5 when the cyclone is
 forecast to be an extratropical low.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  04/2100Z 32.2N  66.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
  12H  05/0600Z 33.8N  65.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
  24H  05/1800Z 35.6N  64.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
  36H  06/0600Z 37.3N  61.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
  48H  06/1800Z 39.2N  56.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
  72H  07/1800Z 42.5N  42.3W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  08/1800Z 46.1N  27.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  09/1800Z 49.7N  18.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart