774 
 WTNT43 KNHC 141441
 TCDAT3
 
 Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number  29
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082018
 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 14 2018
 
 Conventional satellite imagery and a 1147 UTC METOP-B AMSU
 microwave image show a deep convective curved band wrapping around
 the surface circulation in the west semicircle.  Additionally, a
 recent 1148 UTC ASCAT-B scatterometer pass indicates that Helene is
 a little stronger than earlier estimated.  The data showed a number
 of 60 kt winds in the northeast quadrant.  Based on these data,
 Helene is still classified as a tropical cyclone, and the initial
 intensity is bumped up to 60 kt for this advisory.
 
 The large-scale models and the statistical intensity guidance
 indicate little change in strength during the next 36 hours or so.
 After that time, some gradual weakening is forecast as Helene
 completes extratropical transition while passing just to the north
 of the Azores Islands.  The ECMWF, UKMET, and the CMC all show
 Helene absorbed by a larger baroclinic system just beyond the 72
 hour period, as the cyclone moves over Ireland and the United
 Kingdom.
 
 The initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 010/20 kt,
 within the deep-layer southerly flow produced by a mid-tropospheric
 trough to the west.  A north-northeast to northeast turn is expected
 over the weekend as the cyclone quickly moves within the
 mid-latitude westerlies.  Only a slight adjustment to the left of
 the previous track forecast was made through 48 hours.  The NHC
 official forecast is based primarily on the TVCN multi-model
 consensus.
 
 An orange wind warning is in effect for the Azores, equivalent to a
 tropical storm warning.  Tropical Storm conditions with gusty winds
 and heavy rains are likely over the weekend as Helene passes the
 islands, regardless of whether the cyclone is a tropical storm or
 post-tropical.
 
 Helene is expected to be a post-tropical cyclone when it approaches
 Ireland and the United Kingdom in a few days.  Interests in those
 locations should consult products from their local meteorological
 service for information about potential impacts from Helene.  Local
 forecasts and warnings for the UK can be found on the website of the
 UK Met Office at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/.  Local forecasts
 and warnings for Ireland can be found on the website of Met Eireann
 at https://www.met.ie/.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  14/1500Z 32.9N  36.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
  12H  15/0000Z 35.5N  35.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
  24H  15/1200Z 38.4N  33.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  16/0000Z 40.7N  30.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  16/1200Z 42.7N  25.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  17/1200Z 47.4N  16.1W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  18/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT
 
 $$
 Forecaster Roberts