585 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 052028
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006
 200 PM PDT TUE SEP 05 2006
 
 THE EARLIER BURSTS OF CONVECTION NEAR KRISTY HAVE MORPHED INTO
 BANDS... GIVING THE IMPRESSION OF AN INTENSIFYING TROPICAL CYCLONE.
 THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF TWO HOOKING-TYPE
 BANDS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE INCREASING... AND THE
 INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT.  THIS MIGHT BE A CONSERVATIVE
 FIGURE IF THE CENTER IS A LITTLE MORE TUCKED INTO THE CONVECTION
 THAN WE THINK.  THE INTENSITY EVOLUTION FOR THE NEXT TWO OR THREE
 DAYS APPEARS TO BE A BATTLE BETWEEN SLOWLY DECREASING SSTS...
 STABLE AIR ENTRAINED FROM THE NORTH... AND LIGHT WIND SHEAR.  GIVEN
 THE CURRENT SATELLITE APPEARANCE... A LITTLE MORE INTENSIFICATION
 SEEMS LIKELY... AT LEAST IN THE SHORT-TERM.  THE SHIPS MODEL HAS
 THIS GENERAL IDEA AND WAS THE MAIN TOOL FOR THE INTENSITY FORECAST. 
 IT IS WORTH NOTING THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS
 FORECAST DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF KRISTY.  SMALL SYSTEMS ARE
 SOMEWHAT NOTORIOUS FOR THEIR RAPID CHANGES IN INTENSITY THAT ARE
 DIFFICULT TO FORECAST.  
 
 THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE WEST... 280/10...
 THOUGH THE SHORTER-TERM MOTION IS EVEN FASTER.  THERE IS NO CHANGE
 TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  A MIDDLE-
 TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH SHOULD STEER KRISTY WEST TO
 WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS. THEREAFTER... THE
 RIDGE COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE... CAUSING THE STORM TO HEAD
 GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT A SMIDGE TO THE NORTH TO
 ACCOUNT FOR THE MODEL CONSENSUS. 
 
 WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CHANGES IN
 CONVECTION... THEN MODIFIED TO ADJUST FOR TYPICAL MOTION
 ASYMMETRIES.    
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      05/2100Z 16.7N 122.8W    40 KT
  12HR VT     06/0600Z 17.1N 124.4W    45 KT
  24HR VT     06/1800Z 17.5N 126.4W    50 KT
  36HR VT     07/0600Z 17.7N 128.0W    50 KT
  48HR VT     07/1800Z 17.7N 129.6W    50 KT
  72HR VT     08/1800Z 17.7N 132.5W    45 KT
  96HR VT     09/1800Z 17.7N 135.0W    40 KT
 120HR VT     10/1800Z 17.7N 138.0W    35 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART