320 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 150244
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL STORM ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 PM PDT TUE SEP 14 2004
  
 ISIS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. 
 THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 55 KT BASED ON DVORAK
 CLASSIFICATIONS OF 3.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THE INITIAL MOTION
 IS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE BUT IT APPEARS THAT A GENERAL
 PROGRESSION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST CONTINUES...300/4.
 
 ALL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO WANT TO KEEP ISIS IN THE SAME AREA OVER THE
 NEXT 5 DAYS. THE EARLY FORECAST CONTINUES THE SLOW MOVEMENT TOWARD
 THE NORTHWEST. THEREAFTER...IT IS AN EDUCATED GUESS AS TO WHERE
 ISIS WILL BE. THE ONLY CERTAINTY IS THAT IT IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE
 FAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD
 DRIFT...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
 
 THE RECENT INTENSIFICATION SUGGESTS THAT ISIS HAS FINALLY RID ITSELF
 OF ITS SHEAR INDUCED MALAISE. MODEST STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER
 THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE SLOW MOTION OF ISIS WILL
 PROBABLY INDUCE SOME UPWELLING OF COLDER WATER. THIS IS REFLECTED
 IN THE LONGER TERM FORECAST...AND IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE
 SHIPS MODEL.    
  
 FORECASTER JARVINEN/HENNON
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      15/0300Z 17.3N 131.1W    55 KT
  12HR VT     15/1200Z 17.5N 131.7W    60 KT
  24HR VT     16/0000Z 17.6N 132.1W    60 KT
  36HR VT     16/1200Z 17.7N 132.4W    60 KT
  48HR VT     17/0000Z 17.8N 132.6W    55 KT
  72HR VT     18/0000Z 17.9N 132.8W    50 KT
  96HR VT     19/0000Z 18.0N 133.0W    45 KT
 120HR VT     20/0000Z 18.1N 133.4W    45 KT
  
  
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