348 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 051430
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006
 800 AM PDT TUE SEP 05 2006
 
 JUST WHEN WE THINK THAT KRISTY IS DONE FOR... A STRONG BURST OF
 CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS PERSISTED FOR THE LAST SEVERAL
 HOURS.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS NOW SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... AND
 KRISTY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO BE A TROPICAL STORM... AGAIN.  THE
 SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE SURVIVED THE STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR...
 RELAXING SOMEWHAT DUE TO AN INVERTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
 EAST... BUT THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE STORM IS PRETTY
 MARGINAL FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.  A STABLE STRATOCUMULUS
 CLOUD LAYER IS TRYING TO WRAP INTO THE STORM'S CIRCULATION AND
 SHIPS DIAGNOSES RATHER DRY CONDITIONS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS
 BEYOND 48 HOURS.  HOWEVER... SSTS STAY NEAR OR ABOVE 26C FOR THE
 PERIOD... AND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW
 DAYS.  THEREFORE... KRISTY ISN'T EXPECT TO FLOURISH BUT...
 UNFORTUNATELY... DISSIPATION IS NO LONGER ANTICIPATED.  GLOBAL
 MODELS GENERALLY HOLD ON TO THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT 5 DAYS... AND SO
 DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
 
 THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE WEST... 275/7.  A
 DEVELOPING RIDGE TO THE NORTH SHOULD PUSH KRISTY WEST TO
 WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT A FASTER RATE FOR THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS. 
 THEREAFTER... THE RIDGE COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE... CAUSING THE
 STORM TO FOLLOW A WESTWARD COURSE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
 FORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN
 PREVIOUS.. BUT NOT AS FAR TO THE NORTH AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      05/1500Z 16.4N 121.5W    35 KT
  12HR VT     06/0000Z 16.7N 123.0W    35 KT
  24HR VT     06/1200Z 17.1N 125.1W    35 KT
  36HR VT     07/0000Z 17.5N 127.0W    35 KT
  48HR VT     07/1200Z 17.5N 128.5W    35 KT
  72HR VT     08/1200Z 17.5N 131.5W    35 KT
  96HR VT     09/1200Z 17.5N 134.5W    35 KT
 120HR VT     10/1200Z 17.5N 137.5W    35 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART