116 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 040833
 TCDEP3
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009
 200 AM PDT FRI SEP 04 2009
  
 SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT JIMENA IS SHEARING APART THIS
 MORNING.  ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW
 15-20 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER JIMENA...AND WATER
 VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AIR ALOFT ENTRAINING INTO THE
 SYSTEM.  AS A RESULT...THE CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED AND MOVED OFF
 TO THE EAST...LEAVING A PARTLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER
 THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.  WHILE THERE IS NO RECENT DATA FROM THE
 CYCLONE CORE...IT IS ESTIMATED THAT JIMENA HAS WEAKENED TO A
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND JIMENA
 IS LIKELY TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS OR LESS.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOUTHEASTWARD DRIFT...130/2.  JIMENA IS
 EXPECTED TO BEGIN A SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION LATER TODAY THAT
 SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES.
  
 WHILE THE CONVECTION HAS DECREASED...THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY
 OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO AND THE
 CENTRAL PART OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      04/0900Z 27.4N 111.6W    30 KT
  12HR VT     04/1800Z 27.3N 111.8W    30 KT
  24HR VT     05/0600Z 27.0N 112.1W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  36HR VT     05/1800Z 26.8N 112.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     06/0600Z 26.6N 113.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     07/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN