783 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 220842
 TCDEP4
 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006
 200 AM PDT TUE AUG 22 2006
  
 AN AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS OF A 0336Z QUIKSCAT PASS AND 0251Z 37 GHZ
 AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF
 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR IS FINALLY BECOMING DECOUPLED FROM THE
 CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE'S MOVEMENT HAS
 SLOWED AND...BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE DATA... THE
 TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  A
 SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER HAS BEEN
 ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE...PRESUMABLY
 HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY.  IN FACT...THE
 QUIKSCAT DATA SUGGESTED THAT THE INTENSITY WAS CLOSE TO 40 KT. 
 HOWEVER NOW THAT HECTOR'S LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BECOMING
 DECOUPLED...IT HAS PROBABLY SPUN DOWN TO MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM
 STRENGTH.  HECTOR SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO DUE
 TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...COOL WATERS AND STABLE AIR.
  
 THE 12-H TRACK FORECAST ACCOUNTS FOR THE SLOWER INITIAL MOTION OF
 285/4.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK THEN CONTINUES ON A GENERALLY
 WESTWARD AND FASTER MOTION IN CONSIDERATION OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS
 AND STEERING BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES.  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      22/0900Z 22.4N 136.5W    35 KT
  12HR VT     22/1800Z 22.6N 137.4W    30 KT
  24HR VT     23/0600Z 22.9N 139.1W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  36HR VT     23/1800Z 23.1N 141.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     24/0600Z 23.3N 143.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     25/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH/FIORINO