818 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 290835
 TCDEP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014
 200 AM PDT THU MAY 29 2014
 
 Amanda has come unglued during the past few hours, with the
 remaining deep convection now located more than 2 degrees to the
 northeast of the low-level center. This weakening appears to be due
 to the usually potent combination of vertical wind shear and mid/
 upper-level dry air advecting over the cyclone. The initial
 intensity is decreased to 35 kt based on the degradation in the
 satellite presentation and is a blend of the latest Dvorak Final-T
 and CI numbers from TAFB and SAB.
 
 While the SHIPS model shows the shear decreasing over Amanda during
 the next day or two, the thermodynamic environment continues to
 worsen. Therefore, it seems unlikely that Amanda will be able to
 restrengthen. The NHC forecast continues to show a weakening trend
 and is close to the intensity consensus. Remnant low status is
 forecast in 36 hours, although this could occur sooner, with
 dissipation expected in 4 or 5 days.
 
 Recent microwave imagery and multi-channel IR imagery suggest that
 the low-level center is exposed to the southwest of the remaining
 convection and that the center may be elongating. The initial motion
 estimate is a rather uncertain 045/05, but it does appear that
 Amanda has been moving a little to the left of the previous forecast
 track. The bulk of the dynamical guidance shows Amanda turning
 toward the east-northeast and slowing down later today as an
 upper-level trough passes by to the north. By Friday, the guidance
 suggests a slow eastward motion, followed by a westward turn in 72
 hours as Amanda becomes a shallow cyclone and is steered more by
 the low-level flow. The new NHC track is a blend of the previous
 forecast adjusted for the initial position and motion and the latest
 guidance, and lies north of a blend of the GFS and ECMWF.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  29/0900Z 16.8N 110.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  29/1800Z 17.1N 110.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  30/0600Z 17.4N 109.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
  36H  30/1800Z 17.5N 109.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  31/0600Z 17.5N 108.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  01/0600Z 17.3N 109.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  02/0600Z 17.0N 110.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  03/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brennan