008 
 WTPA44 PHFO 020900
 TCDCP4
 
 HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP132015
 1100 PM HST TUE SEP 01 2015
  
 AT THE TIME OF THIS ADVISORY...THE EYE OF JIMENA APPEARS TO BE LESS 
 DISTINCT IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS MAY BE DUE IN PART TO 
 AN APPARENT EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...WHICH HAD BEEN NOTED IN 
 PREVIOUS MICROWAVE IMAGERY. ALSO...THE MOST RECENT ESTIMATES OF 
 ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WERE 6 KT FROM 240 DEGREES 
 ACCORDING TO UW-CIMSS AND 12 KT FROM 295 DEGREES BASED ON THE SHIPS 
 ANALYSIS. THEREFORE...THIS SHEAR MAY BE DOING SOME HARM TO THE INNER 
 CORE OF JIMENA. NOTE THAT THE GENERAL APPEARANCE OF THE OUTFLOW 
 PATTERN OF JIMENA CONTINUES TO LOOK REASONABLY HEALTHY. THE LATEST 
 ADT AND THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM 
 PHFO...SAB AND JTWC WERE ALL 5.5/102 KT. THEREFORE...WE WILL 
 MAINTAIN THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 100 KT.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300/08 KT. JIMENA 
 CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED MID 
 LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE GLOBAL 
 FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THIS STEERING MECHANISM WILL WEAKEN DURING 
 THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...CAUSING JIMENA TO SLOW ITS FORWARD MOTION. 
 THE SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD 
 WITHIN 36 HOURS. BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO 
 SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTH 
 OF JIMENA. THAT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE JIMENA TO TURN TOWARD 
 THE NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE 3-5 DAY PERIOD. THE CURRENT FORECAST 
 TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS...WITH SOME SLIGHT NUDGING 
 CLOSER TO THE LATEST TVCN AND GFEX CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.
  
 SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES /SST/ REMAIN NEAR 28C ALONG MOST OF THE 
 FORECAST TRACK. OF NOTE IN THE LATEST CIRA ANALYSIS OF OCEAN HEAT 
 CONTENT /OHC/ IS THAT JIMENA APPEARS TO BE TRAVELING IN A LOCAL 
 MINIMUM OF THIS PARAMETER ALONG ITS FORECAST TRACK. THESE LOWER 
 VALUES OF OHC MAY BE DUE TO PREVIOUS HURRICANES THAT HAVE RECENTLY 
 TRAVERSED THIS REGION OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THE LATEST SHIPS 
 GUIDANCE SHOWS MODEST WEST-SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND SHEAR. THESE 
 ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ONLY SLOW WEAKENING 
 DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER 72 HOURS...COOLER SST VALUES AND 
 INCREASING SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MORE RAPID WEAKENING. THE 
 LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  02/0900Z 17.7N 142.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
  12H  02/1800Z 18.1N 142.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
  24H  03/0600Z 18.6N 143.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
  36H  03/1800Z 19.1N 143.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
  48H  04/0600Z 19.7N 144.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
  72H  05/0600Z 21.2N 144.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
  96H  06/0600Z 23.5N 145.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 120H  07/0600Z 26.0N 146.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER HOUSTON