188 
 WTPA44 PHFO 051444
 TCDCP4
 
 TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP092015
 500 AM HST WED AUG 05 2015
  
 GUILLERMO IS GIVING IN TO STRONG AND PERSISTENT SHEAR...WITH DEEP 
 CONVECTION DIMINISHING AND BECOMING INCREASINGLY DETACHED FROM THE 
 LOW LEVEL CENTER. A U.S AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAD BEEN 
 SAMPLING GUILLERMO THROUGH THE MOST OF THE NIGHT...PROVIDING CRUCIAL 
 DATA REGARDING THE CYCLONE/S WIND FIELD AND CENTER LOCATION. AS 
 TASKED...THE AIRCRAFT WAS LOCATING A FLIGHT LEVEL CENTER...AT AN 
 ALTITUDE NEAR 10 KFT. DROPSONDES RELEASED NEAR THE FLIGHT LEVEL 
 CENTER WERE CONSISTENTLY FINDING FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE WINDS... 
 LEADING TO THE CONCLUSION THAT THE SYSTEM IS TILTED WITH HEIGHT. 
 AVAILABLE MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS NOTION...AND IT WOULD NOT 
 BE A SURPRISE IF CONVENTIONAL VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS AN EXPOSED 
 LLCC LATER TODAY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY HAS BEEN 
 LOWERED TO 50 KT...BASED ON MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 55 KT AND 
 SFMR WINDS NEAR 50 KT...WITH THESE WINDS PRIMARILY LOCATED NORTH OF 
 THE CENTER. 
 
 AS THE CYCLONE IS NORTH OF A RIDGE AXIS ALOFT...IT IS NOW FIRMLY 
 EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH 
 THE SUBTROPICAL JET. SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED TO BE
 BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KT...WITH EVEN GREATER SHEAR VALUES ALONG THE
 FORECAST TRACK. WITH THE SYSTEM IN THIS HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...STEADY
 WEAKENING IS FORECAST...WITH DEGENERATION TO A REMNANT LOW NOW
 FORECAST BY DAY 3. SHIPS GUIDANCE DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM WITHIN 48 
 HOURS...AND THE LATEST ECMWF GUIDANCE FOLLOWS SUIT. THE LATEST 
 INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS...BUT HAS ACCELERATED 
 THE WEAKENING TREND...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE IVCN CONSENSUS.  
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION VECTOR IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 290/08 KT...WITH 
 THE RECENT TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST RELATED TO THE SYSTEM 
 BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHALLOW. THE UPDATED TRACK FORECAST IS 
 ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS...IS CLOSE TO THE GFEX AND 
 TVCN CONSENSUS...AND ASSUMES A FAIRLY SHALLOW SYSTEM WILL BE STEERED 
 BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW PROVIDED BY A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED 
 TO THE DISTANT NORTH-NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH THE PROBABILITY OF 
 SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE WATCH AREA HAVE 
 DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY WITH THIS ADVISORY...NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO 
 THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME.   
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  05/1500Z 20.5N 151.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  06/0000Z 21.2N 152.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  06/1200Z 22.0N 154.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  07/0000Z 22.4N 156.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  48H  07/1200Z 23.0N 159.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  08/1200Z 24.6N 163.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  09/1200Z 26.5N 168.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  10/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 
 FORECASTER BIRCHARD