380 
 WTPA41 PHFO 270854
 TCDCP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032015
 1100 PM HST WED AUG 26 2015
  
 THE DEEP CONVECTIVE PATTERN AROUND KILO HAS BECOME MORE IMPRESSIVE
 OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS...WITH A WELL DEFINED LLCC NOTED JUST WEST
 OF A GROWING CURVED BAND. IN CONTRAST...DEEP CONVECTION HAS
 COLLAPSED ACROSS THE WEST SEMICIRCLE. LOW CLOUD LINES SHOW LOW
 LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS INTACT THROUGHOUT THE SYSTEM...AND
 SPREADING HIGH CLOUDS SHOW GOOD OUTFLOW ACROSS ALL BUT THE
 NORTHWEST QUADRANT. WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE A SMALL AMOUNT OF
 SOUTHWEST MOTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS...IT SEEMS THAT THIS SYSTEM
 HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PAST THREE TO SIX HOURS. THE
 INITIAL MOTION OF 245/01 KT IS A REMNANT OF THE OLD 12 HOUR MOTION.
 SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 3.0...45
 KT...FROM ALL THREE SATELLITE CENTERS AND...GIVEN THE CONTINUED
 GOOD OVERALL ORGANIZATION...WE WILL ASSIGN AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF
 45 KT. 
 
 TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE GROUPED AROUND A SOLUTION SHOWING
 KILO SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHWEST AND WEST SOUTHWEST THROUGH 48
 HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY SWINGING NORTHWEST WHILE ACCELERATING DAYS
 THREE THROUGH FIVE. INTERESTINGLY...CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO
 THE RIGHT WHILE FOLLOWING THIS GENERAL CURVING TREND. THIS MAY BE
 THE RESULT OF THIS SYSTEM/S STUBBORN REFUSAL TO PICK UP ANY FORWARD
 SPEED THROUGH THE PAST FEW FORECAST CYCLES. MODELS STILL SHOW A
 MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTHWEST OF KILO AS THE MAIN STEERING
 MECHANISM...PUSHING KILO INITIALLY SOUTHWESTWARD THEN LETTING KILO
 SLIP NORTHWESTWARD IN THE MEDIUM AND LONG TERM. TO STAY NEAR
 CONSENSUS...THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
 ONE THROUGH DAY TWO...WITH A NOTICEABLE SHIFT TO THE RIGHT
 INTRODUCED TO THE TRACK FROM DAYS THREE TO FIVE.
 
 KILO LIES WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT SHOULD PROMOTE GRADUAL
 INTENSIFICATION...WITH SSTS NEAR 29C AND REASONABLY GOOD VENTING
 ALOFT. SHIPS SHOWS 10 TO 15 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR THROUGH 48
 HOURS...BUT INTENSIFIES THIS SYSTEM TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 36
 HOURS ANYWAY. SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE BEYOND 48 HOURS AS KILO TRACKS
 WESTWARD THEN NORTHWESTWARD BENEATH UPPER RIDGING. MOST INTENSITY
 GUIDANCE...INCLUDING SHIPS...SHOW MORE RAPID STRENGTHENING
 THROUGH DAY FIVE AND THIS FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT...BRINGING
 KILO TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48 HOURS. KILO IS THEN FORECAST TO
 REMAIN IN A FRIENDLY ENVIRONMENT THROUGH DAY FIVE WHICH SHOULD
 PROMOTE CONTINUED STRENGTHENING.
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  27/0900Z 17.9N 168.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  27/1800Z 17.8N 168.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
  24H  28/0600Z 17.6N 169.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  28/1800Z 17.5N 170.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
  48H  29/0600Z 17.5N 171.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
  72H  30/0600Z 18.0N 173.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
  96H  31/0600Z 20.0N 175.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 120H  01/0600Z 23.2N 176.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER POWELL