022 
 WTNT44 KNHC 042059
 TCDAT4
 
 HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
 500 PM EDT TUE OCT 04 2016
 
 The eye of Hurricane Matthew is not as distinct as it was earlier
 today, and the change in the overall pattern suggests that the
 cyclone is a little weaker due to the interaction with the nearby
 high terrain. The initial intensity has been lowered to 120 kt and
 some slight additional weakening could occur tonight while Matthew's
 circulation continues to interact with Cuba and Hispaniola. Once
 Matthew moves into the Bahamas, the environment is favorable for the
 hurricane to maintain category 4 status for the next 2 days. Some
 weakening is anticipated beyond 3 days due to an increase of the
 wind shear.
 
 Earlier reconnaissance aircraft fixes, satellite and radar data from
 Cuba indicate that Matthew is moving toward the north or 360 degrees
 at about 8 kt.  The hurricane continues to be steered by the flow
 around the western edge of a subtropical ridge. Most of the global
 models build the ridge westward, and this pattern should force the
 hurricane to turn toward the northwest across the Bahamas and to the
 waters just east of Florida. The most interesting change this
 afternoon is that the ECMWF has forecast a stronger western Atlantic
 ridge than in previous runs. This evolution resulted in an
 additional leftward shift of the ECMWF track and consequently, the
 NHC forecast has also been adjusted to the left, necessitating the
 southward extension of the hurricane watch in Florida. Beyond 3
 days, the ridge is forecast to move eastward, allowing Matthew to
 turn northward and then northeastward.
 
 
 KEY MESSAGES:
 
 1.  Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm
 surge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in
 portions of the warning areas in Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas.
 Please consult statements from the meteorological services and other
 government officials in those countries.
 
 2.  When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel
 to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through
 South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to estimate impacts this
 far in advance.  For example, only a small deviation of the track to
 the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major
 hurricane onshore, while a small deviation to the right could keep
 all of the hurricane-force winds offshore.  It will likely take
 another day or so for the potential impacts of Matthew in the United
 States to clarify.
 
 3.  Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect portions of
 Florida north of the current Hurricane Watch area, Georgia, South
 Carolina, and North Carolina  later this week or this weekend, even
 if the center of Matthew remains offshore.  It is too soon to
 specify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on the
 remainder of the U.S. east coast farther to the north.  At a
 minimum, very dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely
 along much of the U.S. east coast later this week and weekend.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  04/2100Z 19.8N  74.3W  120 KT 140 MPH
  12H  05/0600Z 21.1N  74.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
  24H  05/1800Z 22.5N  75.3W  115 KT 130 MPH
  36H  06/0600Z 24.0N  76.6W  115 KT 130 MPH
  48H  06/1800Z 25.9N  78.2W  115 KT 130 MPH
  72H  07/1800Z 29.5N  80.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
  96H  08/1800Z 33.5N  78.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 120H  09/1800Z 40.0N  71.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila