754 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 220258
 TCDEP4
 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006
 800 PM PDT MON AUG 21 2006
  
 MODERATE CONVECTION IN HECTOR IS LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN
 SEMICIRCLE...THOUGH IT IS DISPLACED OVER 100 NMI FROM HECTOR'S
 CENTER.  DVORAK ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO DROP AND THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STATUS IN DEFERENCE
 TO THE EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS THAT SHOWED SEVERAL 40 KT
 UNCONTAMINATED VECTORS.  HECTOR SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT
 DAY OR TWO DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...COOL WATERS AND STABLE
 AIR.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/6 AS IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT HECTOR WILL
 MAKE THE TURN...FINALLY...TO THE WEST AS IT DECAYS AND MOVES WITH
 THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS JUST ON THE
 NORTH SIDE OF THE CONSENSUS BUT SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS PREDICTIONS.  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      22/0300Z 22.6N 135.9W    35 KT
  12HR VT     22/1200Z 23.0N 136.6W    30 KT
  24HR VT     23/0000Z 23.2N 138.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  36HR VT     23/1200Z 23.4N 140.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     24/0000Z 23.5N 142.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     25/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER STEWART/LANDSEA