504 
 WTNT44 KNHC 191459
 TCDAT4
 HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
 1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007
  
 THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF
 142 KT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT THE CURRENT
 ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF 125 KT.  CENTRAL PRESSURES HAVE BEEN SLOWLY
 RISING...THE EYE DIAMETER HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 12
 HOURS...AND THE RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL
 STRUCTURE.  IN THE SHORT TERM...THERE COULD BE SOME BROADENING OF
 THE WIND FIELD WITH FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH AS THE CORE OF DEAN
 APPROACHES JAMAICA...BUT FURTHER STRENGTHENING OVER THE DEEP WARM
 WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED.
 
 THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  THE
 INITIAL MOTION IS 280/16...WITH SOME EMBEDDED WOBBLES.  AS
 THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
 CONTINUES TO SHIFT WESTWARD AHEAD OF DEAN...THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE
 HURRICANE WILL BE CONTROLLED LARGELY BY A DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE
 SYSTEM THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
 STATES.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED
 WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
 ADVISORY.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      19/1500Z 17.0N  75.1W   125 KT
  12HR VT     20/0000Z 17.5N  77.7W   125 KT
  24HR VT     20/1200Z 18.3N  81.2W   130 KT
  36HR VT     21/0000Z 19.0N  84.5W   140 KT
  48HR VT     21/1200Z 19.9N  88.2W   120 KT...INLAND
  72HR VT     22/1200Z 21.5N  95.0W   100 KT
  96HR VT     23/1200Z 23.0N 100.0W    40 KT...INLAND
 120HR VT     24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN