761 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 140833
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL STORM ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 2 AM PDT TUE SEP 14 2004
  
 INFRARED ANIMATION SHOWS THAT ISIS CONTINUES TO HAVE INTERMITTANT
 BURSTS OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  WIND SHEAR ALSO APPEARS TO
 BE LIGHT.  THE STRATOCUMULUS INFLOW CONTINUES AND THE SYSTEM
 APPEARS TO BE IN A STEADY STATE AS FAR AS INTENSITY IS
 CONCERNED...WARM SSTS...LIGHT SHEAR...WORKING AGAINST STABLE
 ENTRAINED AIR. CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM
 TAFB AND SAB AND 35 KT FROM KGWC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN
 AT 45 KT.  THE FORECAST INTENSITY ALSO STAYS AT 45 KTS THROUGHOUT
 THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION FOR 0600 UTC WAS STATIONARY...BUT FOR 0900 UTC
 WILL BE 270/2 KT. ISIS HAS SLOWED DOWN AND WILL PROBABLY BEGIN TO
 DRIFT AROUND.  THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FORECASTS A DRIFT TO THE
 WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS
 REASONING.
 
 FORECASTER JARVINEN
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      14/0900Z 16.5N 129.4W    45 KT
  12HR VT     14/1800Z 16.5N 129.8W    45 KT
  24HR VT     15/0600Z 16.5N 130.5W    45 KT
  36HR VT     15/1800Z 16.7N 131.2W    45 KT
  48HR VT     16/0600Z 16.9N 131.6W    45 KT
  72HR VT     17/0600Z 17.5N 132.0W    45 KT
  96HR VT     18/0600Z 18.0N 132.3W    45 KT
 120HR VT     19/0600Z 18.2N 132.8W    45 KT
  
  
 $$