224 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 212035
 TCDEP4
 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006
 200 PM PDT MON AUG 21 2006
  
 A 15Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS THAT HECTOR WAS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN
 PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED...WITH SEVERAL BELIEVABLE 40 KT VECTORS...AND
 THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO REFLECT THIS. 
 NEVERTHELESS...THERE IS VERY LIMITED CONVECTION AND HECTOR IS
 EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SPIN DOWN OVER 23C WATERS.  WESTERLY SHEAR IS
 STRONG AND NOT FORECAST TO ABATE.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/6.  HECTOR HAS APPARENTLY BEEN MAINTAINING
 ENOUGH CONVECTION FOR THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TO DEFLECT THE MOTION TO
 THE RIGHT OF PREVIOUS FORECASTS.  AS THIS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
 DECAY...A LEFTWARD TURN IS EXPECTED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
 FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE NOGAPS GUIDANCE...WITH MOST OF THE OTHER
 DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOWING A MORE ABRUPT WESTWARD TURN.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      21/2100Z 22.3N 135.5W    40 KT
  12HR VT     22/0600Z 22.8N 136.2W    30 KT
  24HR VT     22/1800Z 23.3N 137.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  36HR VT     23/0600Z 23.5N 139.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     23/1800Z 23.5N 141.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     24/1800Z 24.0N 145.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     25/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN