567
WTPZ42 KNHC 220843
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072008
200 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2008
ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FAUSTO HAS DISSIPATED
DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS AND FAUSTO HAS BEEN REDUCED TO A SWIRL OF
LOW CLOUDS WITH MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 50 KT IS BASED ON AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS BUT THIS
COULD BE A BIT GENEROUS GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION. NOW
OVER COLD WATER AND WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF REGENERATING SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTION...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING OF FAUSTO IS EXPECTED. IT
WOULD APPEAR THAT THE CYCLONE IS WELL ON ITS WAY TO REMNANT LOW
STATUS.
A COUPLE OF NICE MICROWAVE PASSES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS DECOUPLED FROM AND A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUSLY
TRACKED MID-LEVEL CENTER. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW
280/10 AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS OR UNTIL DISSIPATION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/0900Z 20.7N 119.6W 50 KT
12HR VT 22/1800Z 21.0N 121.0W 40 KT
24HR VT 23/0600Z 21.5N 122.8W 35 KT
36HR VT 23/1800Z 22.0N 124.5W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 24/0600Z 22.4N 126.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 25/0600Z 23.0N 129.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
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