906 
 WTPA44 PHFO 012055
 TCDCP4
 
 HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP132015
 1100 AM HST TUE SEP 01 2015
 
 SEVERAL MICROWAVE PASSES...ALONG WITH A WELL DEFINED EYE IN 
 CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALLOWED FOR HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 
 CENTER LOCATION. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 6.0/115 
 KT FROM PHFO AND SAB. MICROWAVE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW EYEWALL 
 REPLACEMENT IN PROGRESS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED 
 AT 105 KT WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 290 DEGREES AT 06 KT. 
 
 JIMENA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 
 COUPLE OF DAYS...STEERED BY A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM A 
 HIGH NEAR 40N158W. THE FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND CURVE 
 TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AS THE STEERING FLOW WEAKENS OVER THE NEXT 48 
 HOURS. BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A TROUGH ALOFT 
 DROPPING SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTH OF JIMENA. THAT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED 
 TO CAUSE JIMENA TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THE CURRENT 
 TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS A 
 BIT TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
 THE UW-CIMSS VERTICAL SHEAR PRODUCT SHOWED MODEST SHEAR OF AROUND
 10 KT FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WHILE SHIPS SHOWED ONLY 5 KT OF SHEAR
 FROM THE NORTHWEST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...SST...REMAIN FAIRLY
 WARM AT 27.8 DEGREES C. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
 PRODUCE SLOW WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER 72 HOURS... 
 COOLER SST AND INCREASING SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MORE RAPID 
 WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS 
 FORECAST AND TO SHIPS.
 
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  01/2100Z 16.9N 140.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
  12H  02/0600Z 17.3N 141.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
  24H  02/1800Z 17.8N 142.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
  36H  03/0600Z 18.3N 143.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
  48H  03/1800Z 18.8N 143.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
  72H  04/1800Z 20.2N 144.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
  96H  05/1800Z 22.0N 145.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 120H  06/1800Z 24.0N 146.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER DONALDSON