259 
 WTPA44 PHFO 050243
 TCDCP4
 
 TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP092015
 500 PM HST TUE AUG 04 2015
  
 DESPITE AN INCREASINGLY RAGGED APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGES...US
 AIR FORCE WEATHER RECON DATA SHOWED THAT GUILLERMO HAS BEEN ABLE TO
 MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. DROPSONDE DATA
 SHOWED 60 KT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT...MBL SHOWED 58 KT AND WL150
 SHOWED 55 KT...ALL OF WHICH SUPPORT KEEPING GUILLERMO AT 60 KT.
 RECON FIXES ALSO SHOWED THAT THE CENTER OF GUILLERMO HAS SHIFTED
 WESTWARD WHICH MAY BE INDICATIVE OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER DECOUPLING
 IN THE FACE OF 34 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR AS SHOWN IN THE CIMSS 0000
 UTC ANALYSIS.
 
 A DECOUPLING OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER SHOULD BE INDICATIVE OF THE
 START OF A WEAKENING TREND. THE OBJECTIVE AIDS SHOW THIS TREND WITH
 SHIPS DISSIPATING GUILLERMO BY 72 HOURS. HWRF HOLDS THE INTENSITY UP
 A LITTLE LONGER...FOR 12 HOURS...THEN BEGINS THE WEAKENING TREND.
 THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A STEADY WEAKENING WITH GUILLERMO BECOMING A
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION AFTER DAY 3. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
 PACKAGE AND THE IVCN CONSENSUS. 
 
 THE SHORT TERM WESTWARD SHIFT HAS RESULTED IN AN ADJUSTMENT OF THE
 FORECAST TRACK CLOSER TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THAN THE
 PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND A BIT SLOWER AS WELL. A DECOUPLED SYSTEM WILL
 RESULT IN THE CENTER OF GUILLERMO BEING STEERED MORE BY THE LOWER
 LEVEL FLOW SO THE FORECAST LEANS TOWARD BAMS GUIDANCE AND IS SOUTH
 OF THE GFS...ECMWF...HWRF AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE TRACK CHANGE
 AND THE ADJUSTMENT CLOSER TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WARRANTS
 MAINTAINING THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI
 COUNTY. MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY TRENDS TONIGHT...WITH SUPPORTING
 DATA FROM ONGOING USAF RESERVE WEATHER RECON...WILL DETERMINE THE
 FUTURE STATUS OF WATCHES FOR THE STATE OF HAWAII.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  05/0300Z 20.1N 149.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
  12H  05/1200Z 20.7N 150.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  06/0000Z 21.5N 152.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  06/1200Z 22.1N 154.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  07/0000Z 22.9N 156.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
  72H  08/0000Z 24.3N 160.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
  96H  09/0000Z 26.0N 165.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 120H  10/0000Z 28.0N 169.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KODAMA