586 
 WTNT43 KNHC 232039
 TCDAT3
 HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 5 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2005
  
 THE WEAKENING TREND APPEARS TO HAVE LEVELED OFF. IT APPEARS THAT THE
 EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES HAVE BEEN THE DOMINANT FACTOR...AS
 USUAL...IN CONTROLLING THE INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS OF RITA. FLIGHT
 LEVEL WIND DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
 MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ABOUT 110 KNOTS. OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE
 INCREASED A LITTLE SUGGESTING STRONGER WINDS BUT I RATHER WAIT FOR
 THESE NUMBERS TO PERSIST. ONLY A SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST
 BEFORE LANDFALL DUE TO SHEAR AND COOLER OCEAN. THIS IS NOT A VERY
 SIGNIFICANT CHANGE AND IN FACT...RITA IS STILL FORECAST TO MAKE
 LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE.
  
 THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT
 ABOUT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
 THE STEERING PATTERN IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL. ON THIS
 TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA SHOULD REACH THE UPPER TEXAS/SOUTHWEST
 LOUISIANA COAST SATURDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER...THE STEERING
 CURRENTS ARE FOREAST TO COLLAPSE AND A WEAKENED RITA COULD
 MEANDER FOR A FEW DAYS OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
 PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINS.
  
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      23/2100Z 28.2N  92.6W   110 KT
  12HR VT     24/0600Z 29.2N  93.7W   105 KT
  24HR VT     24/1800Z 30.8N  94.5W    65 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     25/0600Z 32.5N  94.5W    30 KT...INLAND
  48HR VT     25/1800Z 33.5N  94.5W    25 KT...INLAND
  72HR VT     26/1800Z 33.5N  94.5W    25 KT...INLAND
  96HR VT     27/1800Z 33.5N  94.5W    25 KT...INLAND
 120HR VT     28/1800Z 33.5N  94.5W    25 KT...INLAND
  
  
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