923 
 WTNT43 KNHC 251444
 TCDAT3
 TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 AM EDT SAT SEP 25 2004
  
 EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW LEVEL
 CENTER REMAINS EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
 HOWEVER...IN THE LAST COUPLE HOURS A CONVECTIVE BAND HAS TRIED TO
 WRAP AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. CURRENT DVORAK
 INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES. LISA WILL REMAIN A
 35 KT TROPICAL STORM. WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED A LITTLE BASED UPON A
 RECENT QUIKSCAT OVERPASS.
 
 INITIAL MOTION IS 320/8 KT. THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS THE SAME
 FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
 CENTRAL ATLANTIC HAS WEAKENED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH WILL ALLOW
 LISA TO MOVE IN A NORTHWEST DIRECTION. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
 THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE INDICATING A TURN BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
 THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT WITH A MID-LEVEL
 RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS IS THE
 SAME RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY STEERING HURRICANE JEANNE. THE
 UKMET...MOVES LISA SLOWER DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST
 PERIOD AND THEREFORE TURNS THE CYCLONE MUCH SOONER AND IS FURTHER
 SOUTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT OF THE
 PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE
 GFS SOLUTION. 
 
 SHIPS MODEL WAS INITIALIZED WITH NORTHERLY SHEAR OF 17 KT OVER 
 LISA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR MAY BE 
 BEGINNING TO LESSON. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
 SLOW STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HOURS. SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT THE
 SHEAR MAY REMAIN LOW BEYOND 72 HOURS ALLOWING LISA TO BECOME A
 HURRICANE. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL REMAIN CONSERVATIVE
 AND LEVEL OFF LISA JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH.
  
 FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      25/1500Z 15.9N  45.6W    35 KT
  12HR VT     26/0000Z 16.8N  46.4W    40 KT
  24HR VT     26/1200Z 18.0N  47.2W    45 KT
  36HR VT     27/0000Z 19.4N  47.9W    50 KT
  48HR VT     27/1200Z 21.0N  48.5W    55 KT
  72HR VT     28/1200Z 23.7N  50.0W    60 KT
  96HR VT     29/1200Z 25.5N  51.5W    60 KT
 120HR VT     30/1200Z 27.0N  54.0W    60 KT
  
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