787 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 080850
 TCDEP4
 
 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142014
 200 AM PDT MON SEP 08 2014
 
 There has been no organized deep convection within Norbert's
 circulation for more than 12 hours now, so the system is being
 declared a post-tropical cyclone.  The initial wind speed is lowered
 to 35 kt in basic agreement with a 0524 UTC ASCAT-B overpass that
 indicated wind vectors of around 32 kt in the southwestern quadrant.
 Since Norbert is expected to move over even cooler waters, it is
 presumed that a faster rate of decay should occur during the next
 couple of days, with dissipation forecast in 2-3 days. The official
 wind speed forecast shows slightly faster weakening than the
 previous one, with the expectation that the remnant low of Norbert
 will be very weak when it approaches the north-central Baja
 California peninsula.
 
 Norbert has been moving northwestward or 320/5 kt.  The post-
 tropical cyclone should turn toward the north and northeast during
 the next couple of days ahead of a mid-tropospheric trough advancing
 eastward offshore of the California coast. In 2-3 days, the shallow
 remnant circulation should be pushed east-northeastward or eastward
 by the low-level flow toward the coast of the northern Baja
 California peninsula prior to dissipation.  The official track
 forecast is essentially the same as the previous one and in best
 agreement with the multi-model consensus TVCE.
 
 Although Norbert is weakening, tropical moisture should continue to
 spread northward across northern Mexico and the southwestern United
 States.  This could result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash
 flooding in these area during the next day or two. Please see
 information from your local weather office for more details.
 
 This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
 on Norbert.  For future information on the post-tropical cyclone,
 please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
 Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  08/0900Z 27.4N 118.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  12H  08/1800Z 27.7N 118.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  24H  09/0600Z 28.5N 118.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  09/1800Z 29.0N 117.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  10/0600Z 29.3N 116.9W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  11/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Kimberlain