545 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 042035
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006
 200 PM PDT MON SEP 04 2006
  
 THERE WAS ANOTHER SMALL PUFF OF CONVECTION...SINCE DISSIPATED...
 EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.  A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 14Z HAD A FEW
 BELIEVABLE 30 KT VECTORS...AND THAT WILL BE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. 
 OVERALL...KRISTY'S CIRCULATION LOOKS LESS VIGOROUS THAN 24 HOURS
 AGO...AND IT IS SLOWLY SPINNING DOWN.  HOWEVER...THE RECENT
 CONVECTION MEANS WE WILL NEED TO WAIT A BIT LONGER BEFORE
 TERMINATING ADVISORIES.  
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 225/5.  TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW AN
 INCREASING WESTWARD MOTION...IN RESPONSE TO THE MID AND UPPER-LEVEL
 EASTERLIES...THAT KRISTY WITH ITS ANEMIC CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
 IGNORE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PRESUMES THAT KRISTY WILL REMAIN
 MOSTLY NON-CONVECTIVE AND INTERACT MINIMALLY WITH THE EASTERLIES. 
 AS A RESULT...IT IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE
 TRACK GUIDANCE.
 
 BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE RE-INTENSIFY THE CYCLONE TO A
 STRONG TROPICAL STORM.  HOWEVER...EASTERLY SHEAR AND UNFAVORABLE
 ATMOSPHERIC THERMODYNAMICS HAVE BEEN LIMITING CONVECTION...AND I
 SEE NO REASON WHY THIS SHOULD NOT CONTINUE.  GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT
 A DECREASE IN EASTERLY SHEAR...BUT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG
 EASTERLIES UPSTREAM AND HEADED KRISTY'S WAY.  THE MOST LIKELY
 SCENARIO IS THAT KRISTY WILL DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW DURING THE
 NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.    
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      04/2100Z 16.2N 119.3W    30 KT
  12HR VT     05/0600Z 16.1N 120.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  24HR VT     05/1800Z 16.1N 121.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  36HR VT     06/0600Z 16.2N 122.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     06/1800Z 16.4N 123.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN