196 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 031432
 TCDEP3
 TROPICAL STORM JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009
 800 AM PDT THU SEP 03 2009
 
 MICROWAVE PASSES FROM TRMM AND AMSR-E HAVE HELPED LOCATE THE CENTER
 OF JIMENA THIS MORNING...WHICH APPEARS TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE EAST
 COAST OF THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. VERTICAL WIND
 SHEAR HAS CAUSED ALMOST ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION TO BE DISPLACED
 EAST OF THE CENTER OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWESTERN
 MAINLAND MEXICO. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 40 KT AFTER
 CONSIDERING THE DEGRADED SATELLITE APPEARANCE AND ASSUMING A
 GRADUAL REDUCTION OF THE WINDS.  
 
 STRONG SHEAR IN COMBINATION WITH LAND INTERACTION SHOULD CAUSE
 CONTINUED WEAKENING OF JIMENA...AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
 EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY...AND
 BECOME A REMNANT LOW TOMORROW. STEERING CURRENTS HAVE BECOME
 WEAK...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 330/4. A TURN TOWARD THE
 WEST AND THEN THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS JIMENA BECOMES A SHALLOW
 SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
 AND BAM SHALLOW. 
 
 THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH JIMENA IS HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING FLASH
 FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...TROPICAL STORM
 WARNINGS COULD BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT FOR MEXICO.  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      03/1500Z 27.9N 112.6W    40 KT
  12HR VT     04/0000Z 28.1N 112.9W    30 KT...INLAND
  24HR VT     04/1200Z 28.0N 113.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  36HR VT     05/0000Z 27.6N 114.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     05/1200Z 27.2N 114.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     06/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BLAKE