389 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 281431
 TCDEP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014
 800 AM PDT WED MAY 28 2014
 
 Although Amanda is producing a considerable amount of deep
 convection, with cloud tops as cold as -85 C, the cloud pattern
 lacks organization.  Microwave images show that the
 low-level center is located near the southern edge of the
 convective area, indicative of the continued influence of
 southerly shear.  The latest Dvorak classifications have decreased
 slightly, and support lowering the initial wind speed to 55 kt.
 
 Vertical cross sections from the GFS model show a pronounced south
 to north tilt of the vortex due to the shear.  Since the
 environmental winds are not expected to change much during the next
 24 hours, additional weakening is anticipated.  Even though the
 shear is forecast to lessen on Thursday, Amanda is expected to
 continue to lose strength due to dry air entrainment and lower sea
 surface temperatures along the forecast track.  The NHC intensity
 forecast follows the trend in the guidance and calls for Amanda to
 become a remnant low in a few days.
 
 The tropical storm is moving slowly northeastward in the flow
 between a trough to its west and a ridge to its east over Mexico.
 This continued motion, with some increase in forward speed, is
 expected during the next day or two.  After that time, however,
 Amanda is forecast to reverse its course and move slowly
 southwestward when a low- to mid-level ridge builds to the north of
 the weakening system.  The NHC track forecast is close to the
 multi-model consensus, and not too far from the previous
 official track forecast.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  28/1500Z 15.0N 112.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
  12H  29/0000Z 15.5N 111.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  29/1200Z 16.3N 110.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  30/0000Z 17.1N 109.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  30/1200Z 17.5N 108.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  31/1200Z 17.7N 109.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  01/1200Z 17.0N 110.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  02/1200Z 16.0N 111.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi