673 
 WTPA44 PHFO 042050
 TCDCP4
 
 TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP092015
 1100 AM HST TUE AUG 04 2015
  
 AFTER A BRIEF INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION LAST NIGHT...THE
 APPEARANCE OF GUILLERMO IN THE SATELLITE IMAGES HAS BECOME DEGRADED
 ONCE AGAIN. THE SYSTEM IS VERY ASYMMETRIC WITH THE COLDEST CLOUD
 TOPS MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND SOME OF THE CIRRUS
 REACHING CALIFORNIA. A USAF RESERVE WEATHER RECON MISSION THIS
 MORNING REPORTED A MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 65 KT AND A MAXIMUM
 SFMR VALUE OF 55 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE INBOUND LEG FROM
 THE NORTHWEST PICKED UP SFMR VALUES OF 65 AND 69 KT BUT THIS WAS
 THROUGH A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION AND IS CONSIDERED NOT
 REPRESENTATIVE. BASED ON THE ADJUSTMENT TO THE FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS
 AND THE VALID SFMR VALUES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE MAINTAINED
 AT 60 KT.
  
 GUILLERMO HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHWEST THROUGH A BREAK IN THE
 RIDGE ALOFT WITH THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS PACKAGE AT 310/09 KT.
 THE RELIABLE OBJECTIVE AIDS HAS ONCE AGAIN SHIFTED NORTH A BIT FOR
 THIS PACKAGE...AND THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED NORTH
 SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN RESPONSE. THE CURRENT
 FORECAST IS CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH THE ECMWF FORECAST THROUGH 48
 HOURS THEN SOUTH OF MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE BEYOND THAT TIME
 FRAME. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL
 NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AT ITS CLOSEST POINT OF
 APPROACH. IF THIS MOTION CONTINUES...AND THERE IS NO
 SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
 TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY MAY BE
 CANCELED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
  
 THE CIMSS ANALYSIS AT 1800 UTC SHOWED OVER 26 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR
 IMPACTING GUILLERMO.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF
 INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. IT IS ALSO MOVING TOWARD A DRIER
 AIRMASS. THESE FACTORS SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN GUILLERMO EVEN THOUGH
 SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ADEQUATE. SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS A SHARP
 WEAKENING WITH DISSIPATION BY 72 HOURS. HWRF MAINTAINS THE SYSTEM
 NEAR 50 KT FOLLOWED BY A SHARPER WEAKENING TREND. THE FORECAST
 FOLLOWS THE IVCN CONSENSUS WITH GUILLERMO STEADILY WEAKENING TO
 A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AFTER DAY 3.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  04/2100Z 20.2N 149.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
  12H  05/0600Z 21.0N 150.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  05/1800Z 22.0N 152.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  06/0600Z 23.0N 154.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  06/1800Z 24.0N 155.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
  72H  07/1800Z 25.6N 159.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
  96H  08/1800Z 27.0N 163.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 120H  09/1800Z 28.5N 167.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KODAMA