488 
 WTNT43 KNHC 231452
 TCDAT3
 HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2005
  
 RITA HAS WEAKENED SINCE YESTERDAY. THE EYE IS NOT AS DISTINCT AND
 THE CONVECTION IS NOT AS INTENSE AS 24 HOURS AGO. THIS IS CONSISTENT
 WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WHICH HAS RISEN TO AROUND 927 MB AND
 WINDS HAVE DECREASED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN
 TO 115 KNOTS. UNLESS ANOTHER EYEWALL CYCLE OCCURS THAT COULD BRING
 THE WINDS TEMPORARILY UP A LITTLE BIT...THE OVERALL TENDENCY IS FOR
 RITA TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY. SO FAR THE PASSAGE OF RITA OVER THE WARM
 EDDY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS NOT RESULTED IN INTENSIFICATION.
 HOWEVER...RESEARCH SUGGESTS THERE IS A LAG IN THE ATMOSPHERIC
 RESPONSE.  NEVERTHERLESS...RITA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS
 CATEGORY 3 OR...A LITTLE LESS LIKELY...CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY.
  
 UPPER-AIR DATA SHOWS THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTROLLING THE
 MOTION OF THE HURRICANE IS ALREADY NORTH AND EAST OF RITA AND IS
 CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS AND TENNESSEE. CONSEQUENTLY...RITA HAS TURNED
 MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND IS NOW MOVING 310 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. NO
 SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TRACK IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE LANDFALL NEAR THE
 UPPER TEXAS OR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COAST EARLY SATURDAY. ONCE
 INLAND...THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AND RITA IS
 EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVER NORTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN
 ARKANSAS. RITA BY THEN WILL LIKELY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS. THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS VERY CLOSELY THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
  
 RITA IS A LARGE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
 OUTWARD A GREAT DISTANCE. A SOND DROPPED FROM A RECONNAISSANCE
 PLANE MEASURED 56 KNOTS SURFACE WINDS ABOUT 120 N MI WEST OF THE
 EYE.
  
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      23/1500Z 27.4N  91.9W   115 KT
  12HR VT     24/0000Z 28.3N  93.1W   115 KT
  24HR VT     24/1200Z 30.0N  94.2W   100 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     25/0000Z 31.5N  95.0W    45 KT...INLAND
  48HR VT     25/1200Z 33.0N  94.5W    30 KT...INLAND
  72HR VT     26/1200Z 33.5N  94.0W    25 KT...INLAND
  96HR VT     27/1200Z 33.5N  94.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 120HR VT     28/1200Z 33.5N  94.0W    25 KT...INLAND
  
  
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