383 
 WTNT43 KNHC 250844
 TCDAT3
 TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 5 AM EDT SAT SEP 25 2004
  
 SHORTWAVE AND ENHANCED BD CURVE INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT A STRONG
 BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER AND A
 DEVELOPING BAND WRAPPING IN FROM THE EAST. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
 ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
 INCREASED TO 35 KT. THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF AN UPPER HIGH
 CONTINUES TO PRODUCE 10 TO 20 KT OF SHEAR OVER LISA. HOWEVER...THIS
 NORTHERLY SHEAR IS STILL FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HOURS
 THEN LEVELS OFF JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH AS THE TROPICAL
 CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE INTENSITY
 FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE SHIPS.
  
 INITIAL MOTION IS 315/8 KT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS...THE
 AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE INDICATING EITHER A TURN TO THE
 WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST BY DAY 4. THIS MOTION IS PROVIDED BY A
 MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A
 MID-UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS IS
 THE SAME RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY STEERING HURRICANE JEANNE. THE GFS
 REMAINS IN THE WEAKNESS AFTER 96 HOURS WITH A TURN TO THE NORTH.
 THE UKMET...ON THE OTHER HAND...REFLECTS A CONSIDERABLY STRONGER
 RIDGE BEYOND 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO THE LEFT OF THE
 PREVIOUS FORECAST BEYOND 72 HOURS AND IS BASED OFF OF A CONSENSUS
 OF ALL THE MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET.
  
 FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      25/0900Z 15.2N  45.2W    35 KT
  12HR VT     25/1800Z 16.2N  46.2W    40 KT
  24HR VT     26/0600Z 17.5N  47.1W    45 KT
  36HR VT     26/1800Z 19.0N  48.0W    50 KT
  48HR VT     27/0600Z 20.5N  48.6W    55 KT
  72HR VT     28/0600Z 24.0N  50.0W    60 KT
  96HR VT     29/0600Z 27.0N  51.0W    60 KT
 120HR VT     30/0600Z 29.5N  51.5W    60 KT
  
  
 $$