451 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 080233
 TCDEP4
 
 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142014
 800 PM PDT SUN SEP 07 2014
 
 Norbert has been producing little or no deep convection over the
 past several hours.  Unless new thunderstorm activity develops in
 the circulation, Norbert will likely be downgraded to a
 post-tropical cyclone soon.  Based on a slow spin down of the
 maximum winds analyzed from the ASCAT overpass from earlier today,
 the current intensity is set at 40 kt.   Since the system has a
 substantial circulation, it should take a couple of days to
 dissipate.  The official wind speed forecast is similar to the
 previous one, and anticipates that the system will be very weak by
 the time it nears the north-central Baja California peninsula.
 
 The cyclone's heading is gradually turning to the right, and the
 initial motion is now 320/6.  A mid-level trough near California
 should cause Norbert, or the remnant low, to turn toward the north
 and northeast during the next couple of days.  By 48-72 hours, the
 weak cyclone will likely move slowly east-northeastward within the
 low-level flow.  The official track forecast is similar to the
 previous one and essentially splits the difference between the
 latest GFS and ECMWF forecast tracks.
 
 Although Norbert is weakening, tropical moisture will continue
 to spread northward across northern Mexico and the southwestern
 United States.  This could result in heavy rains and life-
 threatening flash flooding in these area during the next day or two.
 Please see information from your local weather office for more
 details.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  08/0300Z 27.1N 117.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  08/1200Z 27.7N 118.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  24H  09/0000Z 28.5N 118.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  09/1200Z 29.0N 117.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  10/0000Z 29.2N 116.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  11/0000Z 29.5N 115.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Pasch