469 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 041436
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006
 800 AM PDT MON SEP 04 2006
  
 KRISTY IS...AT BEST...A MARGINAL TROPICAL CYCLONE...BUT OVER THE
 PAST FEW HOURS HAS AGAIN GENERATED SOME DEEP CONVECTION NEAR AND
 JUST WEST OF THE CENTER.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB
 ARE T1.5...AND WITH THE REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 30 KT.  EASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES...
 ALTHOUGH IT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
 SO.  HOWEVER...A STABLE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PREVENT ANY
 PROLONGED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND IF KRISTY FOLLOWS THE
 FORECAST TRACK IT WILL REACH THE 26C ISOTHERM IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.
 BY RIGHTS...ONE BURST OF CONVECTION A DAY SHOULDN'T BE ENOUGH TO
 KEEP THIS SYSTEM CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...BUT I'D LIKE TO
 SEE THE PRESENT CONVECTION DISSIPATE BEFORE DECLARING KRISTY A
 REMNANT LOW...POSSIBLY THIS AFTERNOON.  
  
 THE MOTION HAS BEEN ERRATIC...MORE WESTWARD WHILE THE CONVECTION IS
 ACTIVE AND MORE SOUTHWARD WHEN IT IS NOT.  THE ADVISORY MOTION IS
 ESTIMATED TO BE 250/7.  MODEL GUIDANCE HAS RECENTLY BEEN TOO FAST
 TO THE WEST...PERHAPS GIVING THE SYSTEM CREDIT FOR MORE
 ORGANIZATION THAN IT REALLY HAS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER
 THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE BUT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE UKMET.
  
  
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      04/1500Z 16.7N 119.0W    30 KT
  12HR VT     05/0000Z 16.6N 119.7W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  24HR VT     05/1200Z 16.7N 121.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  36HR VT     06/0000Z 16.9N 122.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     06/1200Z 17.2N 125.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     07/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN