585 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 010848
 TCDEP3
 
 HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132015
 200 AM PDT TUE SEP 01 2015
 
 Jimena has changed little since the previous advisory.  Microwave
 data indicate that the hurricane has concentric eyewalls, and the
 eye temperature has actually warmed a bit during the past few
 hours.  Since the overall satellite presentation has changed
 little, and Dvorak estimates are T6.0 from TAFB and SAB, the
 initial intensity is held at 115 kt.
 
 Jimena has an expansive outflow shield radiating outward 400 to 600
 n mi in all directions from the center, and the UW-CIMSS shear
 analysis is currently showing less than 5 kt of shear affecting the
 hurricane.  The SHIPS guidance shows the shear staying 5 kt or less
 for the next 48 hours, and less than 10 kt for the next 72 hours.
 Sea surface temperatures gradually decrease ahead of Jimena, but
 they are at least 26C for the entire forecast period.  Therefore,
 there don't seem to be any egregiously hostile conditions during
 the next few days to induce a quick weakening trend.  As has been
 the case for days, the hurricane models show a gradual weakening
 trend through the five-day period, while the GFS and ECMWF continue
 to maintain a much stronger hurricane.  As a compromise between
 these scenarios, the NHC intensity forecast lies near the top end
 of the intensity guidance, or close to the SHIPS model.  This
 forecast is a little higher than the previous official forecast.
 
 The initial motion is 280/11 kt.  Jimena is expected to turn
 west-northwestward toward a break in the subtropical ridge within
 the next 12 hours, and then northwestward and north-northwestward by
 days 3 through 5.  This forecast reasoning is unchanged from prior
 advisories, but the track guidance envelope did shift a little west
 after 48 hours on this cycle.  The updated NHC track is therefore
 nudged westward as well and is close to the TVCN model consensus.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  01/0900Z 16.4N 139.1W  115 KT 130 MPH
  12H  01/1800Z 16.9N 140.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
  24H  02/0600Z 17.4N 141.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
  36H  02/1800Z 17.9N 142.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
  48H  03/0600Z 18.3N 143.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
  72H  04/0600Z 19.4N 144.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
  96H  05/0600Z 20.7N 145.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 120H  06/0600Z 22.5N 146.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Berg