908 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 030852
 TCDEP3
 TROPICAL STORM JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009
 200 AM PDT THU SEP 03 2009
  
 ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF JIMENA HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE
 OVER LAND...THE 37 GHZ CHANNEL FROM A TIMELY 0516 UTC TRMM OVERPASS
 SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND IS
 LOCATED NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.  ALL THE DEEP
 CONVECTION IS NOW DISPLACED EAST OF THE CENTER OVER THE GULF OF
 CALIFORNIA AND THE COAST OF NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO.  A 0415
 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED AN AREA OF 40-45 KT WINDS OVER THE GULF OF
 CALIFORNIA...BUT IT IS ASSUMED THAT THERE COULD BE WINDS TO 50 KT
 CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE THE SCATTEROMETER DOES NOT PROVIDE DATA. 
 THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE LOWERED TO 50 KT.  INTERACTION
 WITH LAND AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
 JIMENA FAIRLY QUICKLY...AND THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO
 WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION WITHIN 24 HOURS.  ALTHOUGH THE CENTER MAY
 MOVE OVER THE WATERS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
 DURING THE DAY...RE-STRENGTHENING IS NOT LIKELY.
 
 CONVECTIONAL SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER
 OF JIMENA IS MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...
 AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 350/6.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE
 CONTINUES TO SHOW A CESSATION OF THIS NORTHWARD MOTION LATER TODAY
 WITH JIMENA PREDICTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND MOVE BACK INLAND
 OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE REMNANT LOW OF JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO
 MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER 24 HOURS WITH DISSIPATION
 ANTICIPATED BY 96 HOURS.
 
 TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
 COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHWESTERN
 MAINLAND MEXICO.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      03/0900Z 27.7N 112.4W    50 KT
  12HR VT     03/1800Z 28.2N 112.7W    35 KT
  24HR VT     04/0600Z 28.2N 113.2W    30 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     04/1800Z 27.8N 113.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
  48HR VT     05/0600Z 27.3N 114.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
  72HR VT     06/0600Z 27.0N 115.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW OVER WATER
  96HR VT     07/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BERG