983 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 110836
 TCDEP2
 
 Tropical Storm Aletta Discussion Number  23
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022018
 200 AM PDT Mon Jun 11 2018
 
 Deep convection associated with Aletta has waned overnight, and as a
 result, objective and subjective Dvorak T-numbers have decreased.  A
 recent ASCAT overpass that was very helpful in locating the center
 of Aletta indicated that the cyclone's winds have decreased to
 around 35 kt.  The tropical storm is forecast to weaken while it
 moves over decreasing sea surface temperatures and into a more
 stable air mass during the next day or so.  Aletta is expected to
 degenerate into a remnant low in about 24 hours, but this could
 occur sooner if organized deep convection does not redevelop soon.
 
 Recent satellite fixes indicate that the tropical storm is moving
 west-northwestward at about 5 kt.  The cyclone should turn westward
 today, then west-southwestward by Tuesday as it is steered by the
 low-level tradewind flow.  The low-level flow is expected to become
 quite light as Hurricane Bud moves northwestward off the coast of
 southwestern Mexico.  This should cause Aletta's remnants to become
 nearly stationary by mid-week.  The track guidance is in fairly
 good agreement through 48 hours, but diverges considerably after
 that time due to the lack of well-defined steering currents.  The
 NHC forecast has been shifted slightly eastward at 48 h and beyond
 to be closer to the various consensus tracks.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  11/0900Z 17.0N 116.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  11/1800Z 17.0N 117.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  12/0600Z 16.9N 118.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  12/1800Z 16.6N 119.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  13/0600Z 16.3N 119.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  14/0600Z 16.3N 119.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  15/0600Z 16.3N 119.8W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  16/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown