694 
 WTPA41 PHFO 130239
 TCDCP1
 
 HURRICANE PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012016
 500 PM HST TUE JAN 12 2016
  
 THE SATELLITE REPRESENTATION OF HURRICANE PALI HAS DETERIORATED
 SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS LIKELY DUE TO AN EYEWALL
 REPLACEMENT. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM HFO...SAB AND JTWC ALL
 CAME IN AT 5.0/90 KT. BASED ON ITS RECENT APPEARANCE...WE WILL KEEP
 THE INTENSITY AT 85 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
  
 PALI CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 180/07
 KT. THE HURRICANE REMAINS NEAR A LOW LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN A
 PERSISTENT AREA OF WESTERLY WINDS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR AND
 A DEEP RIDGE CENTERED ROUGHLY ALONG 18N. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
 EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE NEAR 165E IS BUILDING EASTWARD. THIS IS
 CAUSING THE ALREADY LOW LATITUDE HURRICANE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD...
 SOMETHING RARELY SEEN IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. AS PALI SLOWLY
 APPROACHES THE EQUATOR...DEEP EASTERLIES TO THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED
 TO INDUCE A WESTWARD MOTION BEYOND THURSDAY...THOUGH CONTINUED
 INTERACTION WITH THE LOW LATITUDE TROUGH MAY SLOW THE MOTION
 SOMEWHAT. THE OFFICIAL TRACK WAS ALTERED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS
 ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH TVCN AND HWFI WHICH LIE NEAR THE
 MIDDLE OF THE RELIABLE TRACK GUIDANCE.
  
 THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS A BIT CHALLENGING AS THE CYCLONE IS
 EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO EXTREMELY LOW LATITUDES NOT TYPICALLY
 OBSERVED. SHEAR ANALYSIS FROM SHIPS IS 11 KT WHILE UW-CIMSS
 CAME IN AT AROUND 19 KT. PALI WILL REMAIN OVER SEA SURFACE
 TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 29 C ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. LATEST SHIPS
 GUIDANCE KEEPS MODEST SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS
 BEFORE DECREASING DURING DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. THE LATEST OFFICIAL
 FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A SLOW WEAKENING
 TREND EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 72
 HOURS. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE THEN SHOW SOME INTENSIFICATION BEYOND
 96 HOURS WITH THE LATEST FORECAST REFLECTING THIS.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  13/0300Z  5.4N 171.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
  12H  13/1200Z  4.4N 171.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
  24H  14/0000Z  3.7N 172.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
  36H  14/1200Z  3.4N 173.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
  48H  15/0000Z  3.1N 174.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
  72H  16/0000Z  2.8N 177.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
  96H  17/0000Z  3.0N 179.6E   65 KT  75 MPH
 120H  18/0000Z  3.5N 176.3E   70 KT  80 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BURKE