525 
 WTPA41 PHFO 260857
 TCDCP1
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032015
 1100 PM HST TUE AUG 25 2015
  
 DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR THE APPARENT LOW-LEVEL
 CIRCULATION CENTER /LLCC/ OF KILO DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...
 ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT MUCH BANDING STRUCTURE APPARENT WITH MOST OF
 THE CONVECTION REMAINING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LLCC. OUTFLOW HAS
 IMPROVED IN ALL DIRECTIONS...AND UW-CIMSS WIND SHEAR ANALYSIS NOW
 SHOWS VERY WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF LESS THAN 5 KT OVER THE
 CYCLONE. DVORAK SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT T2.5/35KT
 FROM HFO/SAB...AND T2.0/30KT FROM JTWC. KILO MAY ALREADY BE A
 TROPICAL STORM ONCE AGAIN...BUT GIVEN THE PAST HISTORY OF THIS
 SYSTEM WOULD PREFER TO SEE DEEP CONVECTION PERSIST OVER THE LLCC
 FOR A BIT LONGER BEFORE UPGRADING...AND WILL MAINTAIN KILO AS A 
 30 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
 THE RECENT DVORAK FIXES AS WELL AS A 0452 UTC WINDSAT PASS APPEAR
 TO INDICATE THAT THE EXPECTED SOUTHWEST MOTION HAS NOW COMMENCED...
 AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 240/04 KT.
 THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY
 WITH THIS CYCLE. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD A STRONG MID-LEVEL
 RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF KILO...FORCING THE CYCLONE
 INTO A SLOW SOUTHWEST MOTION DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...FOLLOWED
 BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST BY 48 AND 72 HOURS. THE RELIABLE
 TRACK MODELS HAVE REMAINED REASONABLY CONSISTENT FOR THE PAST FEW
 CYCLES...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO
 THE SOUTH CLOSER TO THE TVCN TRACK CONSENSUS THROUGH THE NEXT 48
 HOURS. BEYOND 72 HOURS...KILO IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO THE
 WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AS A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE 
 NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE PREVIOUS TRACK IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
 THE NEW TVCN CONSENSUS FOR THE LATER FORECAST PERIODS...AND LITTLE
 CHANGE WAS MADE FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.
  
 THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CHALLENGING. KILO WILL BE MOVING
 OVER VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 29C WITH AMPLE OCEAN
 HEAT CONTENT THROUGH THE NEXT 120 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS NOW SHOW
 RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
 AS WELL. ON THE OTHER HAND...KILO HAS THUS FAR BEEN UNABLE TO
 SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE IN ORGANIZATION OR MAINTAIN PERSISTENT DEEP
 CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER...AND THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
 CONSISTENTLY RUNNING TOO HIGH. FOR NOW...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST
 WILL BRING KILO BACK TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS IN 12 HOURS...AND
 REFLECT SLOW INTENSIFICATION THEREAFTER THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
 THIS IS MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
 SHIPS/LGEM AND THE IVCN CONSENSUS. 
 
 WITH THE NEW FORECAST TRACK BRINGING KILO QUITE CLOSE TO JOHNSTON
 ISLAND ON THURSDAY...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH
 THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE. 
  
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  26/0900Z 18.4N 167.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  26/1800Z 18.1N 168.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  27/0600Z 17.7N 168.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  27/1800Z 17.1N 169.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
  48H  28/0600Z 16.9N 170.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
  72H  29/0600Z 16.9N 172.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
  96H  30/0600Z 17.5N 175.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 120H  31/0600Z 19.0N 177.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER JACOBSON/WROE