093 
 WTNT43 KNHC 250246
 TCDAT3
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004
  
 SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY AND A RECENT TRMM OVERPASS SHOW THAT THE
 CENTER OF LISA REMAINS DISPLACED ABOUT 50 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE
 DEEP CONVECTION. CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE
 PAST 6 HOURS AS WELL. DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS REMAIN AT 30 KT FROM
 AFWA AND SAB...TAFB IS 35 KT BASED ON A POSITION CLOSER TO THE
 CONVECTION. INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 30 KT FOR THIS
 ADVISORY. THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF AN UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO
 PRODUCE 10 TO 20 KT OF SHEAR OVER LISA. HOWEVER...THIS NORTHERLY
 SHEAR IS STILL FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HOURS
 THEN LEVELS OFF JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH AS THE TROPICAL
 CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE INTENSITY
 FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE SHIPS.
  
 INITIAL MOTION IS 305/7 KT. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ALL AGREE WITH A
 TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS
 AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. 
 THE NOGAPS...GFDL...AND THE UKMET ARE NOW INDICATING A SUBTLE TURN
 TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY DAY 4 AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN
 BEHIND THE TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS
 FORECAST AND IS BASED OFF OF THE GUNA CONSENSUS THAT INCLUDES THE
 NOGAPS...GFDL...UKMET AND THE GFS. 
  
 FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      25/0300Z 14.3N  44.7W    30 KT
  12HR VT     25/1200Z 15.0N  45.7W    35 KT
  24HR VT     26/0000Z 16.5N  46.7W    40 KT
  36HR VT     26/1200Z 18.2N  47.3W    45 KT
  48HR VT     27/0000Z 20.0N  47.7W    50 KT
  72HR VT     28/0000Z 23.5N  48.0W    60 KT
  96HR VT     29/0000Z 27.0N  48.0W    60 KT
 120HR VT     30/0000Z 30.0N  48.0W    60 KT
  
  
 $$