285 
 WTNT43 KNHC 142048
 TCDAT3
 TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 5 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004
  
 SURFACE DATA AND RADAR SHOW A TIGHT CIRCULATION MOVING OVER EASTERN
 NORTH CAROLINA.  WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 61
 KT AT 1736Z SO THE THE WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 60 KT FOR THIS
 ADVISORY.  CHARLEY IS FORECAST TO DROP BELOW TROPICAL STORM
 STRENGTH IN 24 HOURS AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL SOON THEREAFTER.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 030/26.  THE TRACK SCENARIO IS A
 MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
 FLATTENING OUT AS IT RUNS INTO A RIDGE IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC.  THE
 GLOBAL TRACK MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ABOUT A GRADUAL TURN
 TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS IN ADVANCE
 OF THE WEAKENING TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A
 LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FORECAST FOLLOWING A
 CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE.  THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW MUCH OF A
 CIRCULATION AFTER 72 HOURS SO THE FORECAST IS TERMINATED AFTER 72
 HOURS.
  
 FORECASTER LAWRENCE
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      14/2100Z 36.0N  77.0W    60 KT...INLAND
  12HR VT     15/0600Z 39.5N  74.5W    50 KT...NEAR THE COAST
  24HR VT     15/1800Z 42.7N  70.6W    30 KT...NEAR THE COAST
  36HR VT     16/0600Z 44.9N  66.7W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  48HR VT     16/1800Z 46.5N  62.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  72HR VT     17/1800Z 48.5N  52.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  96HR VT     18/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
  
  
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