540 
 FONT13 KNHC 172031
 PWSAT3
 HURRICANE HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  22                
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006               
 2100 UTC SUN SEP 17 2006                                            
                                                                     
 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR.                                       
                                                                     
 CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
    ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
    ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
    ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
 FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
     IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
         AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
    (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
         18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
 X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
 LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
    PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                     
 Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
    ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
    EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
    CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                     
                                                                     
   - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                     
                FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
   TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
 PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
              06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                     
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                     
 BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  10(18)
 BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
 BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
  
 SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
  
 BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
  
                                                                     
   - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                     
                FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
   TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
 PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
              06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                     
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
  HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                     
  12 220N  503W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
  12 220N  503W 50 86   6(92)   1(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
  12 220N  503W 64 60  14(74)   1(75)   X(75)   X(75)   1(76)   X(76)
  
  24 228N  515W 34 72  21(93)   3(96)   1(97)   X(97)   1(98)   X(98)
  24 228N  515W 50 17  49(66)   8(74)   3(77)   1(78)   X(78)   X(78)
  24 228N  515W 64  5  38(43)  10(53)   2(55)   1(56)   X(56)   X(56)
  
  36 231N  530W 34 11  50(61)  20(81)   6(87)   3(90)   1(91)   X(91)
  36 231N  530W 50  1  23(24)  29(53)   8(61)   3(64)   2(66)   X(66)
  36 231N  530W 64  X   9( 9)  23(32)   8(40)   2(42)   1(43)   X(43)
  
  48 235N  550W 34  2  10(12)  33(45)  23(68)  10(78)   2(80)   X(80)
  48 235N  550W 50  X   1( 1)  17(18)  20(38)   9(47)   3(50)   X(50)
  48 235N  550W 64  X   X( X)   7( 7)  15(22)   6(28)   2(30)   X(30)
  
  
  72 245N  575W 34  X   1( 1)   8( 9)  21(30)  26(56)   9(65)   2(67)
  72 245N  575W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)  18(28)   6(34)   2(36)
  72 245N  575W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  10(14)   4(18)   1(19)
  
  
  96 271N  595W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  19(24)  20(44)   7(51)
  96 271N  595W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  11(18)   4(22)
  96 271N  595W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   3(12)
  
  
 120 305N  610W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  15(19)  12(31)
 120 305N  610W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   7(13)
 120 305N  610W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
  
                - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
 FCST MAX WIND     95    100     100      95      90      85      80
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
  
                                                                     
 $$                                                                  
 FORECASTER AVILA