852 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 040833
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006
 200 AM PDT MON SEP 04 2006
  
 I REFUSE TO CLASSIFY KRISTY AS A TROPICAL STORM GIVEN THE CURRENT
 SATELLITE PRESENTATION. THE CYCLONE CONSISTS OF A SWIRL OF LOW
 CLOUDS DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS DO NOT EVEN
 JUSTIFY TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS. THERE IS STRONG EASTERLY
 SHEAR OVER KRISTY AND WEAKENING IS INDICATED. AS IT IS COMMON IN
 THESE SYSTEMS...CLUSTERS OF INTERMITTENT DEEP CONVECTION COULD
 RE-DEVELOP.
  
 THE DEPRESSION/REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD
 STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW UNTIL DISSIPATION.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      04/0900Z 17.5N 118.6W    30 KT
  12HR VT     04/1800Z 17.5N 119.0W    30 KT
  24HR VT     05/0600Z 17.5N 120.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  36HR VT     05/1800Z 18.0N 122.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     06/0600Z 18.0N 124.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     07/0600Z 19.0N 128.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     08/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA