709 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 030247
 TCDEP3
 TROPICAL STORM JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009
 800 PM PDT WED SEP 02 2009
  
 WHILE THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT MICROWAVE OVERPASSES OF
 JIMENA...LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE
 MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CENTER OF JIMENA IS DECOUPLING FROM THE
 LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE
 LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
 PENINSULA.  MODERATE TO STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
 ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CENTER
 EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD MAINLAND MEXICO...WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL
 CENTER IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWEST...THEN WESTWARD IN THE
 LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS
 SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
 ADVISORY...BUT LIES ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE AFTER
 24 HOURS.
  
 JIMENA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION...
 STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR...AND COOL WATER TO THE WEST OF THE
 BAJA PENINSULA.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL
 DEPRESSION WITHIN 24-36 HOURS AND A REMNANT LOW SHORTLY
 THEREAFTER.  IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT JIMENA WILL WEAKEN AND
 DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW SOONER THAN SHOWN BELOW.
  
 ALTHOUGH THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE...THE THREAT OF HEAVY
 RAINFALL AND MUD SLIDES WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAJA
 PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      03/0300Z 27.0N 112.3W    60 KT
  12HR VT     03/1200Z 27.9N 112.8W    45 KT...INLAND
  24HR VT     04/0000Z 28.1N 113.5W    35 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     04/1200Z 28.0N 114.2W    30 KT...INLAND
  48HR VT     05/0000Z 27.9N 114.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW OVER WATER
  72HR VT     06/0000Z 27.7N 115.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     07/0000Z 27.5N 116.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN