887 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 210242
 TCDEP4
 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006
 800 PM PDT SUN AUG 20 2006
  
 MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS FROM WEAKENING CONVECTION MADE IT
 DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER OF HECTOR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...
 WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR TWO CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO CLEAR AND IT
 APPEARS THAT THE CENTER IS MOVING A LITTLE MORE NORTHWESTWARD THAN
 PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE CENTER IS WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE REMAINING
 CONVECTION...WHICH IS CONFIRMED BY A LATE ARRIVING AQUA MICROWAVE
 OVERPASS.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 310/8 KT. HECTOR IS
 EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT GRADUALLY BECOMES A WEAK
 AND SHALLOW SYSTEM. THE TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
 TO RIGHT IN THE FIRST 36 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL MOTION...
 BUT TURNS BACK WESTWARD THEREAFTER...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE
 PREVIOUS TRACK. THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CLOSE TO THE FSU
 SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE SHALLOW BAM MODEL.
 
 CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO WARM AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
 DECREASING AS A RESULT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 40
 KT. WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE AT A STEADY RATE DUE TO COLD WATER
 AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HECTOR IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
 REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS AND FSU
 SUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY MODELS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      21/0300Z 20.9N 134.6W    40 KT
  12HR VT     21/1200Z 21.6N 135.6W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
  24HR VT     22/0000Z 22.3N 136.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  36HR VT     22/1200Z 22.8N 138.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     23/0000Z 23.2N 139.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     24/0000Z 23.5N 142.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     25/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART