870 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 211455
 TCDEP2
 HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072008
 800 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2008
  
 HURRICANE FAUSTO'S MID TO UPPER LEVEL CENTER IS BECOMING DECOUPLED
 FROM THE SURFACE CIRCULATION.  WHILE GEOSTATIONARY INFRARED
 SATELLITE PICTURES SUGGESTED A CONTINUED TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
 OVERNIGHT...MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM AMSR AND AMSU INSTEAD SHOW THAT
 THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS SUBSTANTIALLY SOUTHWEST OF THE 06Z AND 12Z
 GEOSTATIONARY-BASED POSITION ESTIMATES.  THIS DECOUPLING ALSO
 INDICATES THAT THE HURRICANE MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS SUGGESTED BY
 THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.  THE AFOREMENTIONED AMSU
 PASS AT 0936Z GAVE AN INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM CIMSS OF 67
 KT...WHICH IS SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER THAN EARLIER AMSU ANALYSES.  THE
 CURRENT INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 70 KT...BUT THIS MAY BE
 SLIGHTLY ON THE HIGH SIDE.
 
 FAUSTO IS MOVING AT AN UNCERTAIN 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT.  THE CYCLONE
 IS SITUATED SOUTHWEST OF A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
 AND SOUTHEAST OF A VIGOROUS CUTOFF LOW WEST OF CALIFORNIA.  GIVEN
 THE DECOUPLING OF THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS THAT APPEARS
 TO BE OCCURRING...FAUSTO SHOULD NO LONGER FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF THE
 MID AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AND INSTEAD BE INCREASINGLY ADVECTED
 ALONG BY THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW.  THE FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE
 GFDL...UKMET...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF MODELS AND IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF
 THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  
 
 THE DECOUPLING MAY BE DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASINGLY HOSTILE
 THERMODYNAMICS AND MODERATE SOUTHERLY SHEAR IMPACTING THE CYCLONE. 
 CONTINUED WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS FAUSTO SHOULD MOVE OVER EVEN
 COLDER WATERS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  THE INTENSITY
 FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE LGEM...SHIPS...HWRF...AND GFDL
 MODELS...BUT IS SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      21/1500Z 20.4N 116.8W    70 KT
  12HR VT     22/0000Z 21.1N 118.4W    55 KT
  24HR VT     22/1200Z 21.8N 120.5W    45 KT
  36HR VT     23/0000Z 22.2N 122.4W    35 KT
  48HR VT     23/1200Z 22.6N 123.9W    30 KT
  72HR VT     24/1200Z 23.5N 127.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     25/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
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