128 
 WTPA41 PHFO 122047
 TCDCP1
 
 HURRICANE PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012016
 1100 AM HST TUE JAN 12 2016
  
 THE SATELLITE REPRESENTATION OF HURRICANE PALI REMAINS RATHER
 IMPRESSIVE WITH A CLOUD FILLED EYE SEEN IN RECENT SATELLITE
 IMAGERY.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM HFO AND SAB CAME IN AT
 5.0/90 KT...WHILE JTWC CAME IN AT 4.5/77 KT. UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE
 CAME IN AT 81 KT. BASED ON ITS RECENT APPEARANCE AND TAKING A BLEND
 OF THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...WE HAVE SET THE INTENSITY AT 85 KT FOR
 THIS ADVISORY. 
 
 PALI CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 200/06
 KT. THE HURRICANE REMAINS NEAR A LOW LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN A
 PERSISTENT AREA OF WESTERLY WINDS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR AND
 A DEEP RIDGE CENTERED ROUGHLY ALONG 18N. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
 EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE NEAR 165E IS BUILDING EASTWARD. THIS IS
 CAUSING THE ALREADY LOW LATITUDE HURRICANE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD...
 SOMETHING RARELY SEEN IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. AS PALI SLOWLY
 APPROACHES THE EQUATOR...DEEP EASTERLIES TO THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED
 TO INDUCE A WESTWARD MOTION BEYOND THURSDAY...THOUGH CONTINUED
 INTERACTION WITH THE LOW LATITUDE TROUGH MAY SLOW THE MOTION
 SOMEWHAT. THE OFFICIAL TRACK WAS ALTERED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS 
 ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH TVCN AND HWFI WHICH LIE NEAR THE
 MIDDLE OF THE RELIABLE TRACK GUIDANCE.
 
 THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS A BIT CHALLENGING AS THE CYCLONE IS
 EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO EXTREMELY LOW LATITUDES NOT TYPICALLY
 OBSERVED. SHEAR ANALYSIS FROM SHIPS IS 9 KT WHILE UW-CIMSS
 CAME IN AT AROUND 18 KT. PALI WILL REMAIN OVER SEA SURFACE
 TEMPERATURES OF 28 TO 29 C ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. SHIPS GUIDANCE 
 INDICATES A MODEST INCREASE IN WIND SHEAR THROUGH ABOUT 60 HOURS
 THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
 AFTER THAT SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS SHEAR VALUES DROPPING OFF TO AROUND
 5 KT ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY
 FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A SLOW WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED
 TO BEGIN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
 INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN HELD CONSTANT AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND DUE
 TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY AT THE EXTREMELY LOW LATITUDES
 ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THIS FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH SHIPS GUIDANCE
 AS WELL AS IVCN BUT IS MUCH HIGHER THAN HWFI AND MUCH LOWER THAN
 GFDI.
 
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  12/2100Z  6.2N 171.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
  12H  13/0600Z  5.2N 171.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
  24H  13/1800Z  4.3N 172.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
  36H  14/0600Z  3.7N 173.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
  48H  14/1800Z  3.3N 174.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
  72H  15/1800Z  3.0N 176.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
  96H  16/1800Z  3.0N 179.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 120H  17/1800Z  3.2N 178.0E   65 KT  75 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BURKE