930 
 WTPA41 PHFO 121143
 TCDCP1
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22...CORRECTED
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012008
 1100 PM HST MON AUG 11 2008
 
 ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPED NORTHWEST OF KIKA/S EXPOSED LOW
 LEVEL CENTER THIS AFTERNOON...LEAVING THE CENTER ONLY PARTIALLY
 EXPOSED...AND GIVING KIKA A SLIGHTLY BETTER SATELLITE REPRESENTATION
 THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE CONVECTIVE FLARE-UP LED TO SATELLITE 
 INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KT FROM PHFO AND SAB...AND THAT IS THE
 INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH THOSE COLD TOPS ARE
 NOW WARMING. KIKA REMAINS A WEAK CIRCULATION...WITH LITTLE IN THE
 WAY OF WESTERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AS A RECENT QUIKSCAT
 PASS DEPICTS KIKA AS AN OPEN WAVE. 
 
 KIKA IS APPROACHING THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
 ANTICYCLONE...WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ALONG THE
 FORECAST TRACK. KIKA/S INABILITY TO ORGANIZE UNDER THE SEEMINGLY
 FAVORABLE CONDITIONS OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS MEANS THAT IT IS
 HIGHLY UNLIKELY THAT KIKA WILL DEVELOP UNDER INCREASINGLY HOSTILE
 ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS...AND DISSIPATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
 WITHIN 48 HOURS. THIS IS IN LINE WITH MOST OF THE INTENSITY
 GUIDANCE...EXCEPT THE PERSISTENTLY STUBBORN SHIPS MODEL...WHICH
 FORECASTS KIKA TO BE A TYPHOON IN 120 HOURS. ISOLATED DEEP
 CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH
 KIKA/S DISSIPATING CIRCULATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT IT WILL
 LIKELY BE DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER...AND KIKA IS NOT EXPECTED TO
 BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN ITSELF AS A VIABLE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
 
 GIVEN THAT KIKA WILL BE WITHIN EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 
 TROPOSPHERE...THE REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK TOWARD THE WEST 
 AS IT APPROACHES THE DATE LINE. 
 
 THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER 
 ON KIKA...UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      12/0900Z 11.2N 171.3W    25 KT
  12HR VT     12/1800Z 11.5N 173.3W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  24HR VT     13/0600Z 11.7N 176.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  36HR VT     13/1800Z 12.0N 178.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     14/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BIRCHARD