382 
 WTNT44 KNHC 031457
 TCDAT4
 
 HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
 1100 AM EDT MON OCT 03 2016
 
 The latest Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission into Matthew
 found peak flight-level winds of 124 kt at 10,000 feet and a peak
 SFMR wind of 122 kt in the northeastern eyewall around 12Z.  Based
 on these data, the initial intensity is set to 120 kt for this
 advisory.  The aircraft reported an eyewall with a diameter of
 14 n mi that is open to the southwest and the latest central
 pressure based on dropsonde data is 941 mb.  Little overall change
 in intensity is expected during the next couple of days, with the
 exception of some weakening due to possible land interaction with
 Haiti and eastern Cuba.  However, there could be fluctuations in
 intensity due to eyewall cycles that are difficult to predict.
 While Matthew is expected to be a little weaker once it moves into
 the Bahamas as the shear increases somewhat and the ocean heat
 content decreases a little, it is expected to remain a dangerous
 hurricane through the next 5 days.
 
 Matthew is moving due north at around 5 kt, and the hurricane should
 continue moving generally northward for the next 36 to 48 hours
 around the western periphery of the Atlantic subtropical ridge.
 During this time, the track guidance is in generally good agreement
 and the NHC forecast has been nudged a little to the east toward the
 consensus aids and the center of the guidance envelope.  After that
 time, the track foreast becomes more complicated, with the models
 continuing to show a lack of consistency in the evolution of the
 ridge rebuilding north of Matthew in 3 to 5 days, leading to a large
 amount of along and cross track spread at these times.  The ECMWF
 and UKMET are along the left side of the guidance at days 4 and 5,
 with the other models farther east.  The new NHC track is a bit left
 of the previous one and lies near the latest GFS/ECMWF blend, and a
 little left of the latest multi-model consensus.
 
 While all of the deterministic track models currently keep Matthew
 east of Florida, there is still enough uncertainty in the global
 ensembles that direct impacts in Florida cannot be ruled out.  In
 addition, it is still too soon to determine whether, or how Matthew
 could affect the remainder of the U.S. east coast.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  03/1500Z 15.6N  75.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
  12H  04/0000Z 17.0N  74.7W  120 KT 140 MPH
  24H  04/1200Z 18.9N  74.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
  36H  05/0000Z 20.8N  74.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
  48H  05/1200Z 22.6N  74.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
  72H  06/1200Z 25.5N  76.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
  96H  07/1200Z 28.5N  77.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 120H  08/1200Z 32.0N  77.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brennan