115 
 WTNT43 KNHC 242029
 TCDAT3
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 5 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004
  
 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE CENTER 
 OF LISA REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. 
 18Z DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES SUPPORT 30 KT 
 AND LISA WILL REMAIN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY.
  
 BECAUSE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL HAS BEEN EASY TO TRACK TODAY...
 THERE IS A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN DETERMINING THE INITIAL MOTION
 FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE CENTER HAS BEEN WOBBLING AROUND A TRACK OF
 285/9 KT. THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTANT IN FORECASTING A TURN TOWARD
 THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AHEAD OF A
 MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
 ATLANTIC.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO CLOSELY.  IN
 THE LONGER RANGE THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT LISA WILL NOT GET
 PICKED UP AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND ARE NOW FORECASTING A SLOW
 NORTHWARD MOTION AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL TRACK WAS ADJUSTED
 WESTWARD BUT REMAINS A LITTLE NORTHEAST OF GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS
 AT 96 AND 120 HOURS AND LEANS A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION.
  
 NORTHERLY SHEAR IS STILL FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 
 24-36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING
 THROUGH 72 HOURS THEN LEVELS OFF THE INTENSITY AS LISA IS 
 EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
 FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL CLOSELY...BUT IS NOT NEARLY AS AGGRESSIVE AS
 THE GFDL MODEL...WHICH MAKES LISA A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS.
  
 FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      24/2100Z 14.4N  44.4W    30 KT
  12HR VT     25/0600Z 14.9N  45.5W    35 KT
  24HR VT     25/1800Z 16.2N  46.6W    40 KT
  36HR VT     26/0600Z 17.8N  47.2W    45 KT
  48HR VT     26/1800Z 19.7N  47.6W    50 KT
  72HR VT     27/1800Z 23.8N  47.8W    60 KT
  96HR VT     28/1800Z 27.5N  47.8W    60 KT
 120HR VT     29/1800Z 31.0N  47.8W    60 KT
  
  
 $$