187 
 WTNT41 KNHC 030840
 TCDAT1
 
 HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015
 500 AM EDT SAT OCT 03 2015
 
 The eye of Joaquin has been intermittently seen in infrared
 imagery overnight. Overall, the convective pattern is similar
 to what it was when the previous aircraft indicated the intensity
 was around 110 kt, so that will remain the intensity for this
 advisory. Another aircraft will be investigating Joaquin later this
 morning. The intensity forecast reasoning remains unchanged, with
 the cyclone expected to slowly weaken in the first 24 hours followed
 by steadier weakening due to increasing shear and cooler waters.
 Late in the period, Joaquin will slowly weaken as it undergoes
 extratropical transition. The new NHC intensity forecast is an
 update of the previous one and is close to the SHIPS model until
 extratropical transition.
 
 The initial motion is 045/11, and Joaquin should continue to
 accelerate northeastward today in the deep-layer southwesterly flow
 between a deep trough over the southeastern U.S. and the Atlantic
 subtropical ridge. The cross-track spread in the guidance increases
 on days 2 and 3 due to differences in how much Joaquin is tugged to
 the left by an upper-low passing to its north and northwest before
 the cyclone accelerates into the westerlies over the north Atlantic.
 The ECMWF has shifted left this cycle and is now along the left edge
 of the guidance, while the GFS continues to shift east with a track
 closer to Bermuda in 36 to 48 hours. The net change in the guidance
 envelope and the consensus aids is a slight shift to the east, and
 the official forecast has been adjusted in that direction. The NHC
 track now lies close to the middle of the guidance envelope. Further
 adjustments to the forecast track may be needed later today, and a
 Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm warning continue for Bermuda.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  03/0900Z 25.2N  73.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
  12H  03/1800Z 26.7N  71.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
  24H  04/0600Z 29.2N  69.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
  36H  04/1800Z 31.8N  67.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
  48H  05/0600Z 34.1N  66.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
  72H  06/0600Z 38.0N  62.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
  96H  07/0600Z 42.5N  50.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 120H  08/0600Z 47.0N  32.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brennan