513 
 WTNT44 KNHC 181448
 TCDAT4
 HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
 1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 18 2007
  
 AN AIR FORCE PLANE ENTERED THE EYE OF DEAN THIS MORNING AND FOUND
 THAT THE HURRICANE HAS NOT WEAKENED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY
 REMAINS AT 130 KNOTS. IN FACT...THE MINIMUM PRESSURE DROPPED TO 924
 MB AT AROUND 1200 UTC AND THEN UP TO 929 MB JUST RECENTLY. DEAN
 WILL LIKELY GO THROUGH EYEWALL CYCLES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
 RESULTING IN FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. HOWEVER...THE PEAK
 INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
 BETWEEN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND YUCATAN WHERE THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
 IS VERY HIGH.  DEAN COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE AT ANY TIME BEFORE
 IT REACHES YUCATAN.
  
 THE STEERING PATTERN HAS BEEN VERY STEADY. DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE
 WEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS STEERED BY A HIGH OVER THE WESTERN
 ATLANTIC AND A LOW OVER FLORIDA.  THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
 WESTWARD AND BE REPLACED BY A STRONG RIDGE BY ALL GLOBAL MODELS.
 THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP DEAN ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST
 TRACK ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE DIRECTION OF JAMAICA...THE
 CAYMAN ISLANDS AND YUCATAN. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK MODELS
 WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL WHICH INSISTS ON A TRACK FARTHER TO
 THE NORTH AND JUST CLIPPING THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      18/1500Z 15.7N  68.6W   130 KT
  12HR VT     19/0000Z 16.4N  71.0W   130 KT
  24HR VT     19/1200Z 17.3N  74.3W   135 KT
  36HR VT     20/0000Z 18.3N  77.8W   125 KT...NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA
  48HR VT     20/1200Z 19.5N  81.4W   140 KT
  72HR VT     21/1200Z 21.5N  88.5W   100 KT...INLAND
  96HR VT     22/1200Z 23.0N  94.0W   110 KT
 120HR VT     23/1200Z 25.4N 100.0W    50 KT...INLAND
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA